(Washington)

On the surface, the US seems to have a major upper hand in its trade war with China. Simply put, they export a lot more to the US than we do to China, which means that they have more to lose than we. However, looking closer at the imposition of the US’ attest tariffs, a significant weak spot emerges. That weak spot is that the US has become overly reliant on some very niche but important Chinese exports. Mot of these are things people have never heard of, like carbonate esters and fluorine salts, both used for electric car batteries. Nonetheless though, they are very important, and 297 such imports were recently exempted from the US tariffs.

FINSUM: Barite (for oil and gas exploration) and Ibuprofen, are other crucial imports. This is one of the pressure points where China could simply cutoff supply and the US would be in a difficult position.

(New York)

Rates and yields are rising as the Fed hikes and the outlook for the US economy improves. However, that will have a major effect on many stocks, which makes investors nervous. Accordingly, here are five stocks that should thrive in this rising rate period. JP Morgan believes investors should shift out of defensives and into cyclical stocks, like capital goods, financials, auto, and semiconductors. Five stocks to look at are: Applied Materials, BorgWarner, Caterpillar, KeyCorp, Parker-Hannifin.

FINSUM: This is a direct bet that we are not headed toward a bear market and recession. Given the market’s momentum lately, that could be a good change of tact.

(Houston)

The oil market is continuing to thrive and the near-term outlook is strong. WTI oil, the US benchmark is currently trading at over $72 per barrel, while Brent, the world’s benchmark is at $80. The commodity is moving higher as markets are worried it will not be easy for producers to easily offset the losses of production in Venezuela and Iran, meaning supply may be constrained. OPEC generally agrees that when oil gets to $80 or above, it crimps demand.

FINSUM: The near term outlook for oil looks strong because of renewed US sanctions on Iran. However, in the longer term, the trade war seems likely to take a toll on emerging market economies, which will send oil demand and prices sagging.

(New York)

Gold has been in the doldrums for a long time (and we mean long). The shiny metal is still down over 35% from its peak in 2011, and it has lost 8% this year. However, Barron’s is arguing that it is time for gold to shine. They argue that since gold is currently very cheap relative to other asset classes and inflation is increasing, the metal is poised to make a comeback. Gold has historically been a good hedge against inflation, which may drive its renewed appeal as inflation rises. The metal is currently trading around $1,200 per ounce.

FINSUM: The problem with this argument is that gold also tends to weaken as rates rise (because it has zero yield). So, how much will that offset any gains?

(New York)

One of the biggest surprises of the summer has been the outperformance of dividend stocks. Despite rates and yields rising, dividend stocks have done very well. With that in mind, here is a list of 7 of the best cheap high dividend yield ETFs: iShares Core High Dividend ETF (HVD, 3.51% yield), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD, 3.71%), Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF (DJD), Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (SPHQ, 1.73%), Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM, 2.87%), JPMorgan U.S. Dividend ETF (JDIV, 3.76%), Xtrackers MSCI EAFE High Dividend Yield Equity ETF (HDEF).

FINSUM: All of these funds have very low expense ratios, and varying (but generally high yields). If you are looking for dividend income, these are a good place to start. That said, these are non-hedged, so there a good deal of rate risk.