FINSUM
The Best Market Start Since 1987, Ouch
(New York)
Here is potentially good news for investors—the market’s start to this year has been the best since 1987. Both the S&P and Russell have risen considerably in the first 12 sessions of the year, with the former jumping 8.8%. The best start since ’87 sounds good, except that 1987 rivals 2008 as having the worst reputation with investors (shares fell almost 23% in a single day in October 1987). Analysts are urging caution, especially on small caps, as the gains don’t seem sustainable given the huge buildup in leverage that has occurred in small companies over the last few years.
FINSUM: The parallel to 1987 is completely irrelevant, as it is really only based on the percentage gain over 12 sessions.
Why You Should Still Buy Netflix
(San Francisco)
Netflix saw a big selloff on the report of its earnings yesterday. However, don’t be fooled by the market’s reaction, the data was strong. Netflix’s big narrative right now is about whether it can expand internationally. Guess what, international subscriber numbers from yesterday’s earnings blew away expectations, with 7.3m overseas subscribers versus expectations of 6.13m. US subscribers saw a slight miss, which likely caused the price decline.
FINSUM: Netflix does seem like a good buy to us. They are raising prices and growing strongly. We don’t think the price hike will deter many customers.
Value Stocks are Ready to Run
(New York)
It has been a long time since value stocks have performed well. For about a decade, growth stocks have handily outperformed growth. However, the stage may be set for a long awaited rebound in value shares. One thing that may help is that shares fell so much to end the year, which has put many even strong companies in significantly discounted positions. The sign that may show it is time for value to shine is that the valuation gap between the market’s most expensive and cheapest stocks has reached its highest since 2008. This is a good indicator that value stocks are likely to rise.
FINSUM: Many analysts have been calling for a resurgence of value stocks for years and it has not happened. That skepticism aside, we do feel more positive about the possibility this time around.
Why This Bull Market Has Years to Run
(New York)
There has been a lot of bearish sentiment over the last couple of months, with more of a positive trend lately. Put this piece in the positive bucket. The argument in question is from Capital Group, a $1.8 tn manager, who contends that while we are in the late stage of an economic cycle, there should still be a couple years of good earnings growth and returns. The late stage of an economic cycle typically lasts 1-3 years, says Capital Group, and that shouldn’t be any different this time. According to the the firm, “Given that this expansion has been pretty measured, I think we’re expecting that the late stage of the cycle will probably also be quite measured as well … And it doesn’t have to end in a recession”.
FINSUM: We really like that final thought. Everything about this market and economy has been steady for years. A slow and steady end makes sense.
These Stocks Should Rebound in a Big Way in 2019
(New York)
Stocks got wounded very badly in the last quarter of the year, with many stocks entering deep bear markets. Many analysts think stocks are in for a good year, so many feel it is a good time to buy. So what are the best rebound picks for 2019? Sector-wise, it might be best to look at IT, energy, communication services, and utilities. In terms of individual names, consider Noble Energy, Conagra Brands, Alexion Pharma, American Airlines, Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Lines, Tiffany & Co., and Citigroup.
FINSUM: Quite a diverse list! But then again, that is what happens when the S&P 500 falls 20%--there are a lot of wounded stocks to choose from.