(New York)

The trade war seems to be back on with full force. Trump spooked markets today by warning that he may impose higher tariffs on China. With that in mind, here are the stocks and sectors most at risk of big selloffs. Industrials and technology shares are the most vulnerable to tariff worries. It is difficult to say what stocks will be most affected because the potential impacts are widespread. However, the following list looks very at-risk: Colfax, Danaher, Emerson Electric, Fortive, Gates Industrial, 3M, and Kennametal.

FINSUM: We are very early in the volatility for this round of trade fears. Hopefully this minor panic will be the extent of it.

(Washington)

Not to be outdone by the DOL, the SEC made some comments on its forthcoming Best Interest Rule yesterday. SEC chief Clayton has been tightlipped about the rule and its updates, but yesterday said that it would be out soon, likely much sooner than expected. The expectation has been that the SEC would debut the rule in the fall, but speaking on timelines Clayton said “Wait and see … You won't have to wait long”. Reporters taking note of the comment say he suggested the final rule was imminent.

FINSUM: We bet some unveiling of the final rule happens before Memorial Day. This means the DOL’s updated rule is likely coming very soon as well, as they are working in concert.

(Washington)

Investors, take a deep breath, everything about the rate outlook has changed in the last 36 hours. For the first quarter of this year, investors thought we were on an inevitable course for rate cuts as the Fed appeared highly dovish. Then the last two days happened. First, Fed chief Powell delivered a much more hawkish speech than expected, saying that the factors that were holding inflation down were just “transitory”. Then, jobs data this morning blew everyone away with 263,000 jobs created in April.

FINSUM: We think these two factors are a big deal. It is very far from clear the Fed is going to cut (we think the risks are now skewed toward a hike). What makes this worrying is that a lot of the rally this year has been predicated on a dovish Fed.

(New York)

Gold had a great start to the year, but has since fallen back and is now down 1% in 2019. That’s said, there are some encouraging signs. Global demand for gold rose 7% from a year ago in Q1, and inflows to gold ETFs rose 49% versus the same stretch in 2018. Summer is a seasonally weak period for gold, but the metals outlook is going to be highly dependent on central bank action.

FINSUM: To be honest, we do not see a bullish scenario for gold right now. There are neither worries about an economic meltdown or high inflation, so the two big drivers for gold to move sharply aren’t there.

(Los Angeles)

In what comes as a really eye-opening turn of events even for someone as outlandish as Masayoshi Son, SoftBank has announced a plan to IPO its $100 bn Vision Fund. The fund is already legendary, having invested $100bn in just two years in some of the world’s biggest startups. It currently holds positions in WeWork and Uber, for instance. Masayoshi Son is now raising for capital for another fund, so wants to access some liquidity from this first one, thus the plan to IPO.

FINSUM: This is a bonkers plan, but honestly, and interesting opportunity for investors to own pieces of some very exclusive private companies. This is like an early stage Berkshire Hathaway.