(New York)

Jay Powell, head of the Fed, has been working on a year-long project to overhaul one of the Fed’s most important goals. That goal is full employment. The Fed only has two mandates, stable prices in the economy, and maximum employment. Yet the definition of maximum employment is now up for debate. At the core of the consideration is the idea that having a job is different than having a good job. The difference between the two means the Fed may use a different calculation for measuring employment. That potential change has huge implications, as it would likely lead to looser monetary policy both in the immediate future and further out.

FINSUM: We think there is a big difference between the quality of different jobs in the economy which needs to be accounted for by the Fed. The current way of measuring employment was designed when most jobs were permanent and full-time, but with the rise of the gig economy, measuring methods need to shift to account for the changing nature of the labor market.

(New York)

The whole market is freaking out about the trade war. Between the yield curve inversion, plunging yields, and weakening economic indicators, investors are on bear market and recession watch. However, these worries are likely overdone, meaning the current market is a buying opportunity. There is little consensus that economic data is worsening and the economy is headed for a recession, but investors seemed compelled to believe this because the expansion is about to become the longest on record.

FINSUM: Investors seem to be feeling a sense of doom that has little basis in reality. There is no reason why the economy has to go south just because the expansion has reached a decade.

(New York)

There has been a lot of media coverage lately about how to protect one’s portfolio from the trade war. We came across an unusually clever idea recently, however, that has nothing to do with trying to forecasting the impact of tariffs on different sectors. Here is the strategy: buy exchange stocks (meaning the stock of stock exchanges, like the Nasdaq). The argument is that panicked buying and selling alongside a trade war will boost trading volumes, which in turn boosts revenue.

FINSUM: We think this is a brilliant strategy. If volatility rises, exchange stocks will likely do well. If volatility is down, meaning less trading volume, the rest of your portfolio is likely to be doing well.

(Brussels)

We thought it would be good to add a little European flavor to today’s coverage. The Financial Times has written a very insightful piece about the EU and the effect Brexit has had on it. In particular, it cites Donald Tusk, one of the EU’s top policymakers, who says that Brexit has been a “vaccine” against anti-EU parties across the continent. “As Europeans see what Brexit means in practice they also draw conclusions … vaccine against anti-EU propaganda and fake news”.

FINSUM: The EU has seen what Brexit has done to quell any anti-EU sentiment within the Union, which means it will never let off the gas pedal in making Britain’s departure a hellish ordeal.

(Washington)

It happened quickly, more quickly than almost anyone expected. The SEC redrafted its “Regulation best Interest” rule and put it to a vote yesterday, with the new version being approved by a 3-1 vote. The new version is a fairly large departure from the previous one, and went in the complete opposite direction versus expectations. Instead of tightening the rule to put more fiduciary duties on brokers, it did the opposite, eliminating language regarding best interests and seemingly watering down the current suitability standard itself. The vote against the rule came from the SEC’s only Democrat, who said “Rather than requiring Wall Street to put investors first, today's rules retain a muddled standard that exposes millions of Americans to the costs of conflicted advice. Even worse, contrary to what Americans have heard for a generation, the commission today concludes that investment advisors are not true fiduciaries. Today's actions fail to arm Americans with the tools they need to survive the nation's retirement crisis.”.

FINSUM: In addition to the changes mentioned above, it is also worth noting that the new rule significantly expanded the language regarding “solely incidental”, meaning many more brokers do not fall under the rule’s purview. Now it remains to be seen what the DOL does.