(New York)

Hotels are increasingly in trouble. About a quarter of all hotels in the US are now behind on their loan payments. COVID has obviously had a huge effect on hotel occupancy rates, which is now causing financial difficulties for the hotels and their lenders. The situation echoes other data from across the commercial real estate sector. For instance, Vornado Realty Trust yesterday said that it had only collected 53% of retail rents in April, and 90% of office rents.

FINSUM: We think it is critical to remember that re-opening is not a sign that all is clear in commercial real estate. Even once they re-open, restaurants and retail stores are still very likely to be doing MUCH less business than before they closed, and since a lot of cash reserves have probably been used up, their financial situation and thus the sector are just going to grow more precarious.

(Washington)

New polls emerging show an interesting picture of how the November election may go. While Biden remains about 5 points ahead of Trump in national polls, what is more interesting is that he holds a 5-point lead in three of the most integral swing states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That is critical because those are the states that trump won in 2016 in order to beat Hillary. If he doesn’t win those states this time around, the odds are very long for a Trump victory.

FINSUM: The state of the economy and the long lockdown seem to be weighing on Trump right now, but there is still six months to go, which is more than enough time for a big swing (in either direction).

A few days ago COVID Loan Tracker launched an EIDL advance tracking survey. After 96 hours, we are alarmed at the results.

Our data is showing that the SBA is not paying EIDL advances on a first come first serve basis, despite that being the bedrock of the entire program. Application numbers are sequential, and are supposed to be paid in order of application.

Please submit your EIDL Details Here to Help Keep the SBA Accountable
 
However, our data is showing that these are not being paid in order, with some applications made days ahead of others not being paid, while later applications are. We now have thousands of data points on this from the survey, but we can further prove this because of when we received (and did not receive) our own EIDL advances. For example, our co-founder Duncan received his EIDL advance on Monday April 27th, with application number 3301458241. However, close friends of the company who applied earlier (and have lower application numbers) have NOT been paid. So not only is crowdsourced data proving this, but there is first party proof.
 
If you have any relevant details (especially in relation to your application timeline versus Duncan’s), please fill out the EIDL survey or email us at عنوان البريد الإلكتروني هذا محمي من روبوتات السبام. يجب عليك تفعيل الجافاسكربت لرؤيته.

(New York)

The stock market is a minefield right now. A lot of stocks have taken big hits. Some have rallied too much, others still have further to fall. There will be further unpredicted consequences of the COVID economy, so the future is not clear for many stocks. So, where to put money? Here is a suggestion—a down and out, beaten up, but promising fast food stock. Take a look at Restaurant Brands (ticker: QSR), which owns Popeyes, Tim Horton, and Burger King. Shares are down 28% since the end of February, and it has stable earnings and plenty of cash on hand to handle expenses. Popeyes is seeing a return to sales growth while Burger King has suspended its COVID-related fall and is starting to move back to normalcy.

FINSUM: We like this stock because fast food chains are likely to hold up well during the recession. The food is cheap and the restaurants are almost tailor made for COVID (i.e. they already have drive-through).

(Detroit)

Auto stocks have been wounded badly by the COVID lockdown. Car sales have plummeted as buyers do not go to dealerships, test drive etc. The future is not looking great either, as a long recession could crimp consumer spending and hit auto companies where it hurts most—on higher margin large vehicles (like SUVs). Interestingly though, a major Ford insider, COO Jim Farley, just picked up $1m of shares in the embattled company. It was his first open market purchase since at least 2007.

FINSUM: This is a really strong signal from a guy who has been with the company for some time.