
FINSUM
Social Security Badly Underweights Healthcare Costs
Inflation is a concern for retirees, but they should be more concerned than ever becauseSocial Security is tracking the wrong index. Currently Social Security bases its cost of living adjustments on the consumer price index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). However, the CPI-W doesn’t fully account for the costs of healthcare and housing that burden retirees more than other groups. Instead social security should track the Consumer Price Index for Elderly (CPI-E) because this is the demographic they are targeting. Research shows that the average social security account since 1983 is in a 0.2% compounded deficit. The rate of inflation for healthcare is slowing which could end up benefiting retirees moving forward but that's just a prediction.
FINSUM: Social security won’t be keeping up with your healthcare costs and investors should augment their portfolios to compensate.
Hedge Funds Reliant on Rate Hikes
Hedge funds opened the floodgates and entered a firesale on treasuries in response to Powells pivot on inflation. JPMorgan said the selling demonstrates leveraged investors pivoting out of Treasuries. Hedge funds are continually shorting across the futures market, and are now hitting an annual low in U.S. 10-year treasuries futures. The only problem is the tapering hasn’t begun just yet and rate hikes are only in theory. This means hedge funds drastically need the Fed to follow through on a hawkish swing if they don’t want to get hung out to dry.
FINSUM: It would be extremely unlikely the Fed pivots on its tapering. The only way that's possible is if inflation was significantly below target the next one or two quarters.
Congress is Planning Big Changes for Retirement Accounts
Given their widespread popularity lawmakers have scrambled to put together a series of changes to a popular retirement product in the last year and it looks like more are coming. There appears to be bi-partisan support for the additions building on the 2019 Secure act which tried to increase retirement security. The House and Senate bills both include changes that would remove the maximum amount on the Qualified Longevity Annuity Contract. Previously it was capped at the minimum of $135,000 or 25% of your retirement accounts. The Senate provision also bumps the minimum up to $200,000. The new provisions also include auto enrollment in 401(k) plans and a student loan exchange in existing 401(k) plans. The final piece to the provisions is an increase in catch-up contributions for existing 401(k) plans that could further bolster retirement savings.
FINSUM: One of the underappreciated aspects of the Biden administration is the expansion of savings vehicles for retirees across many income earners.
Bond ETF Inflows Fall to Pandemic Lows
The latest data release from BlackRock’s iShares division revealed troubling news about the state of Bond Market ETFs: inflows slumped to just $14 billion which is the lowest since the onset of the pandemic. It's the taxable corporate bond market that's fairing the worst as investors are pouring less dollars into traditional corporate debt and junk bonds, amid fears of inflation eating yields. Instead, investors are turning to shorter duration and inflation protected bonds. Nearly 40% of fixed income flows went into inflation linked bonds, an almost unprecedented number. Investors have also started to put inflows into Chinese bonds as the international sovereign debt market was a relative winner among bond ETFs. China’s yield is the biggest draw to international investors as they see the debt as relatively secure and paying more than developed countries.
FINSUM: Expect corporate bond outflows to continue until the TIPS spread starts turning towards the Feds 2% inflation objective.
Portfolio Management Goes Mobile for Advisors
The cloud has been the latest computing craze financial firms have been chasing but it was mobile control that just got the latest expansion in portfolio management software. Enfusion Inc. is a leading provider of cloud based financial software and they are pushing through several new alterations to their mobile platforms. Mobile users will have personalized reports and real-time access to their market exposures. Additionally, they will have a variety of compliance management features including monitoring and overriding exceptions. Finally, a variety of managed services like secure document sharing and profit and loss statements optimized for mobile platforms will be available.
FINSUM: Companies with an advantage in cloud computing will make the quickest transition to mobile products because of the large data they can provide at the snap of their fingers.