(New York)

Consumer confidence in the United States is at an 18-year high. The last time Americans registered a feeling of confidence this high was in September 2000. However, that could be a big problem for the stock market. Consumer confidence can prove a counter-indicator. The highest ever reading for the measure was recorded in May 2000, just before the Dotcom crash. Small business confidence is even higher, running at a 45-year peak. According to one analyst, “[To] any market historian, that does not guarantee a low-risk market, or another big bull market leg on the horizon”.

FINSUM: These kind of ultra-high measures do worry us as we feel healthy gains come in periods of reasonable concern, not euphoria.