(New York)

One of the most popular fixed income assets for wealthy US investors are municipal bonds. Their tax exempt status has made them continually popular, but what will their fate be during a period of rising rates? There are currently fears that tax cuts and rising rates will wound the sector, but one top financial advisor says the muni sector “will retain its rightful position as a place where wealthy Americans protect their wealth”. Despite rising rates there will be lower issuance this year, which will protect the sector. Additionally, tax cuts for the wealthy will be modest, and not really enough to damage munis. “They will still be a relative value compared with other fixed-income, high-grade asset classes”.

FINSUM: We suspect munis will continue to have a high degree of demand, and if issuance stays low, then those are two important supportive factors. However, some municipalities are facing big budget and pension issues, which could pose a risk.

(Beijing)

Well the market took a big sigh of relief yesterday, with prices swinging back massively. One of the big reasons why was less fear over a possible trade war. In particular, China took a much more conciliatory approach this week. The country announced it would ease foreign investment rules and buy more American semiconductors, a stark move that contrasts the American push towards big tariffs on Chinese imports to the US.

FINSUM: The bottom line in the US tussle with China over tariffs is that the US has a $375 bn trade deficit to Beijing, which means we have much less to lose than them. This is probably the reason Trump referred to trade wars as easy to win.

(New York)

Sometimes looking at raw materials is a great way to get a signal on the economy, especially as they are frequently leading indicators for what is coming. Well, one metal is screaming of bad times to come—silver. Gold is priced at 82x silver, the highest level in two years, which is a seen as a poor indicator. “Money managers tend to favor gold when they think markets might turn rocky and discard silver when they are worried about slower global growth crimping consumption”, says the Wall Street Journal. 55% of demand for silver is for industrial purposes, which links it more with fundamental metals like copper.

FINSUM: So this is an interesting insight, but because silver is not a pure industrial commodity (it is also somewhat of a value store), this comparison does not seem quite as pertinent. Gold to copper would be more interesting.

(New York)

Something very curious is going on in the REIT industry—the funds are liquidating their holdings. REITs have not performed well over the last couple of years, which means many share prices are quite low relative to the market. This means they also frequently trade at a discount to the value of their underlying holdings. In response, many REITs are selling off their property holdings to make a return and bring in cash instead of issuing new shares. REITs have fallen victim to rising interest rates, but are not, in general, using the cash injections to pay down debt.

FINSUM: Considering the position they are in, this does not seem like an unwise move. It also likely signals there is a big buying opportunity in REITs if only you can stay in them long-term.

(New York)

Well it didn’t look like it would be a great year for bonuses, but 2017 bonus data is just in and it was a good year for the industry. Bonuses were up a whopping 17% this year and nearly eclipsed their pre-Crisis levels for the first time. The big bonuses largely reflected the growth of the leveraged loan market, which boosted fees across the industry. The New York state comptroller makes a good point about the data, saying “The large increase in profitability over the past two years demonstrates that the industry can prosper with the regulations and consumer protections adopted after the financial crisis”.

FINSUM: With bonuses getting to near pre-Crisis levels, it seems to be another sign that things are getting toppy.