FINSUM
The Best Income Ideas Right Now
(New York)
Stable income is in the best place it has been for years. The yield curve has stabilized with rates at reasonable levels, which means finding decent-yielding investments isn’t nearly as hard as it was a few years ago. That said, income investments, especially at the higher-yielding end, have pitfalls. With that in mind, here are some good income ideas. The picks come from Franklin Templeton’s $73 bn Income Fund. Some of the top names held (holding assets across the capital structure) are Chesapeake Energy, Tenet Healthcare, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Softbank Group, and Bank of America.
FINSUM: This is a very energy and financials heavy group, which has its risks.
JP Morgan Says Stocks Headed Higher
(New York)
JP Morgan is joining the bullish bandwagon. While fear that the rally has been too fast permeates across the markets, JP Morgan is stepping in to say that they think the market has plenty of runway higher. The bank thinks stocks have a good tailwind behind them as a trio of positive factors exist: a dovish fed, a stable yield curve, and pending US-China trade deal. The bank thinks that stocks look like they did right after the 2015-2016 correction cycle, a period right before a big bull run.
FINSUM: We are starting to think that shares may have some good runway left. The correction in P/E ratios was a very healthy adjustment to end the year, and the macro situation is looking positive.
The Market is Getting Dangerously Crowded
(New York)
One of the big outcomes of the huge rout to end last year was that stock pickers had reportedly gone back to doing what they did best—picking individual stocks based on fundamental value, signaling a diversity of holdings. However, in aggregate, that view appears to be hogwash, as new data shows that institutional equity ownership in stocks is at its highest point in years. Goldman Sachs follows this data and tracks how many companies are among the 50 most owned by hedge funds and mutual funds alike. Right now it is 13, which is the highest level since 2017. Industrial and tech stocks were the most held.
FINSUM: The most concentrated stock holdings are, the more risk there is for steep falls in those names.
The Auto Sector’s Outlook is Bleak
(Detroit)
The auto sector has had a pretty wild ride since the Financial Crisis. The first half decade after the bailout was pretty strong for autos, with sales growing and high margin SUVs jumping in volume. However, the shift to SUVs and away from cars has grown so great that it is causing the industry some headaches. Further, self-driving cars are a new source of opportunity, but also anxiety. A new survey shows the car industry is likely to join energy and retail as the most embattled sectors this year. Sales are widely expected to fall across the industry, putting further stress on car companies.
FINSUM: In great industry-speak, the threats facing the industry are currently called the “Bermuda triable: unfavorable economic conditions, disruptive forces, and changing consumer preference”. We can’t help but agree.
Will the Fed Turn Hawkish?
(Washington)
Once you admit that this 2019 rally is almost purely predicated on the Fed dramatically turning around its position on rates and the economy late last year, you come to a realization: it could all end so quickly. The market is very vulnerable to the Fed’s actions right now, so the question becomes—will the central bank turn hawkish? The short answer is that it doesn’t look like the Fed will get hawkish any time soon. New language released in the latest notes look even more dovish than in December. The key buzzword is that the Fed is looking to be “patient” on rates and says it would need clear upward signs in the economy to hike any further.
FINSUM: The Fed has set up another goldilocks situation for markets. So long as data is okay but not too good, asset prices will be fine. If some data comes out poorly, the market knows the Fed can cut rates. Are we in for another big bull run?