(New York)

Goldman Sachs is launching an interesting suite of new ETFs to help investors gain exposure to emerging areas of technology. The bank’s new offerings include ETFs for human genome research and robotic surgery. In total, the firm launched five new ETFs driven by a strategic partner specializing in calculating companies’ thematic beta. The other ETFs cover innovative financial, data, and manufacturing companies.

FINSUM: This could be an interesting small allocation to portfolios. Some clients are very hot on these new technologies and this might be a nice liquid way to access them. Fees are 50 basis points.

(New York)

Bond investors are getting nervous, and not about the Fed or interest rates. Rather, they are worried about corporate credit. Most will be aware that corporate credit issuance surged over the last decade, especially in fringe investment grade BBB debt. Now, investors are fearing a “wall of maturities”. In the next three years, one third of all triple B rated US debt will come due, a huge test for the group of highly indebted companies. Companies will then need to refinance in this much-less-friendly environment. The Bank for International Settlements warns that in the next downturn, many BBB rated bonds will be downgraded to junk, which will cause fire sales.

FINSUM: Our big worry here is that many institutional investors have strict mandates to not hold junk bonds, so if a solid number of companies fall from the BBB level, there will indeed be huge fire sales in credit markets.

(New York)

Small caps are having a great year so far, but there are increasing worries that the good times might not last. The Russell 2000 is outperforming the S&P 500 by 3% (13% vs 10%) this year, but has tumbled in recent days, a troubling sign. What could be driving the losses is that the big gains in price have not corresponding to improving fundamentals. For instance, small cap performance is very tied to purchasing managers index data (PMI), but the rise in price has not been tied to changes in the PMI. Additionally, small cap companies tend to have the most floating rate debt, which puts them at a higher risk of rising rates. They also tend to have much lower credit quality, meaning they are the most susceptible to shifting rates. More than half the debt issued by small companies is rated as junk.

FINSUM: There is no reason to think the bottom is going to fall out here. However, a sense check seems necessary for small cap investors as there are significant risks.

(New York)

With all the newfound reticence of the Fed, one important fact remains—they could hike at any time. The Fed was hawkish for a long time, and as dovish as they have suddenly become, a position shift on rates could be quick. Accordingly, when considering income-focused investments, advisors need to be very mindful about rate risk. One way to earn good income while also hedging against rates is to look at short term bond funds. Zero and short duration bond funds have little to no rate/duration risk, which means they can earn income without the threat of big losses coming from movements in rates and yields. Some funds to consider are the ProShares Interest rate hedge family or the Fidelity Limited Term Bond (FJRLX), the latter of which yields 2.89% and has a duration of 2.4 years.

FINSUM: Short-term yields have come up so much that limited term bond funds now look like a great buy for stable income without so much capital risk.

(New York)

We have been tracking the economy closely looking for signs of the pending recession that everyone is so worried about. Labor market data last week set off a lot of red flags, and now things are on even more unsure footing. New data released shows that inflation rose at just 0.2% in February, representing an annual gain of 1.5% over the last twelve months. The low inflation means the Fed is not rushing, with Fed chief Powell commenting last week “With nothing in the outlook demanding an immediate policy response and particularly given muted inflation pressures, the [Federal Open Market] Committee has adopted a patient, wait-and-see approach to considering any alteration in the stance of policy”.

FINSUM: This just seems like a return to the post-Crisis norm that we have had. Maybe we will fall back into the several year mode where growth was 2% and inflation was 1.5%.