Compared to the first quarter of 2022, recruitment of financial advisors in Q1 2023 is down 16%. This shouldn’t be too surprising given the recent turmoil in the banking sector, concerns that the economy could tip over into a recession, and much of corporate America in belt-tightening mode. Devin McGinley in a piece for InvestmentNews dug into what the rest of the year should bring and highlighted some notable under the radar trends. 

It will be interesting to see the fallout from the regional banking crisis as it may compel some advisors to leave. For instance, many First Republic advisors have already or are expected to leave the firm following JPMorgan's takeover of the beleaguered bank. 

One bright spot has been growth in the RIA and independent broker-dealer space. In the first quarter, 261 advisors joined RIAs, while broker-dealers added 234 advisors which indicates that both are growing at a similar pace to last year. 

Clearly, the data shows that overall recruitment of financial advisors has slowed. While there could be a burst of activity with advisors leaving regional banks, the bigger story is the continued growth of RIAs and broker-dealers.

Finsum: The recruitment environment for financial advisors has changed in 2023, but there is no change in the pace of growth for RIAs and broker-dealers.

Elizabeth O’Brien covered the optimism among bond investors that a change in Fed policy could result in a major rally for the asset class in a Barron’s article. Current fed futures odds show that the market sees a more than 90% chance of the Fed pausing at its next meeting. And given recent inflation and economic data, it’s likely that the Fed has seen sufficient progress to shift its focus to financial stability over combating inflation.

Therefore, it could be an opportune moment to invest in high-quality bonds with longer maturities. These bonds are yielding about 5% which is nearly double what they averaged during the past decade. 

While some believe that the economy is weakening enough to compel the Fed to cut rates by the end of the year, others believe this is a more typical cycle and that the Fed will likely be on hold for an extended period of time. 

Since 1990, the average pause between hiking and cutting cycles has been 10 months. The typical behavior is that fixed income rallied in anticipation of cuts but volatility picks up until the cuts actually begin, leading to a healthy tailwind for the sector. 

Finsum: A major catalyst could be emerging for fixed income given that the market expects the Fed to pivot at its next FOMC meeting in June.

In an article for GoBankingRates, Andrew Lisa shared some thoughts on the best way to onboard new clients. The first thing is to understand that a financial advisor needs to be an independent and trusted professional for the client, similar to a doctor or lawyer. 

While each individual client has unique personalities and circumstances, there are still some universal principles and guidelines that you can introduce to your clients. This will help communicate your philosophy and value proposition, while creating momentum towards your clients’ goals from Day 1. 

One suggestion is to start with understanding their cash flow. This means understanding every dollar that is coming in and going out. For every financial goal, this is the starting point. Additionally, you can get your clients started on tracking income and expenses to get a better understanding of cash flow. 

Related to this, the next step would be to establish clear goals for the short-term and long-term. The nature of goals could differ based on a clients’ circumstances and age. Finally to increase the odds of success, the plan needs to be put into writing. This increases the chances that the plan is followed and daily decisions are aligned with long-term goals. 

Finsum: Every client is unique, but there are still some common onboarding steps that advisors can take to introduce them to your practice and philosophy. 

In an article for AdvisorPerspectives, Jack Van Dyke of Russell Investments shared some strategies for advisors to attract high net worth investors with direct indexing. 

For most advisors, most strategies or tactics to grow their practice revolve around generating additional revenue from existing clients or adding new high net worth clients. And, the key to accomplishing these goals is to have a unique and differentiated offering. 

Direct indexing fits the bill as it can help reduce a clients’ tax bill, retain the benefits of indexing, and allow for effective customization. While most advisors are aware of this innovation, they have not yet begun offering it to clients. 

Therefore, it’s essential to start the conversation with your prospects and clients. Van Dyke recommends that advisors begin by asking questions to determine whether direct indexing is a good fit for them. These include whether or not they are expecting a large windfall in the future, their current tax liabilities from investments, and whether they have a concentrated stock position. 

These questions are effective conversation starters that you can transition into a discussion about why direct indexing can help them reach their financial goals while giving them more control over their financial destiny.

Finsum: The key to a financial advisory practice is to grow their business and/or increase revenue per client. Direct indexing is one way that advisors can achieve these goals.

In an article for AdvisorHub, Karmen Alexander covered comments from Stifel Financial’s recent conference call when CEO Ronald Kruszewski remarked that there was an opportunity to recruit financial advisors especially following the exit of ‘high payers’. 

While Kruszewski didn’t single out any firms by name, it’s likely that he was referring to First Republic which was a victim of the regional banking crisis and was taken over by JPMorgan with an FDIC backstop. The bank was notable for being an aggressive recruiter of financial advisors with large bonuses and attractive packages. At the start of the year, First Republic was reportedly offering as much as 400% of revenue generated in the past year to advisors with over $10 million in revenue. 

Unlike First Republic which targeted brokers with over $2 million in revenue, Stifel tends to target smaller brokers. Additionally, Stifel has been much more conservative in the terms that it offers. Overall, the bank hired 49 advisors. Of these, 20 were experienced brokers who were lured from other firms. 

Yet, the company also affirmed that while it sees the landscape becoming less competitive with First Republic’s exit, it will continue sticking to its discipline in terms of not offering excessively lavish packages.

In an article for the Financial Times, Mary McDougall reported on growing investor nervousness regarding junk bonds due to tightening credit and financial conditions. According to the Federal Reserve’s survey of Senior Loan officers about 46% of banks are planning to tighten lending standards given worries about defaults and recent stresses to the banking system. 

Historically as lending standards tighten, it leads to a wider spread between junk bonds and Treasuries, indicating concerns over growing defaults. This can even potentially exacerbate a recession as companies have tougher times accessing capital markets which can affect corporate decisions,leading to belt-tightening and job losses. 

What’s interesting is that many expected that the regional bank failures that began in March would have impacts on spreads and lending. Yet, there hasn’t been an impact yet. In fact, the entire bond complex has been quite strong since these stresses began as many interpreted it as increasing the odds of the Fed pausing rate hikes. 

The Federal Reserve also seems to share these concerns as Chair Powell discussed the possibility of a credit crunch and that it poses one of the major risks to its economic outlook and financial stability. 

Finsum: Despite the Fed’s rate hikes and regional banking concerns, lending and spreads have remained relatively resilient, but some are concerned that this won’t last. 

Category: Wealth Management; 

Keywords: #bonds; #Fed; #fixed income

In an article previewing the first quarter earnings season for the energy sector for Zacks Investment Research, Sheraz Mian discussed the major factors for why analysts are forecasting 2023 earnings to decline by about 21% compared to 2022. 

The major factor is that prices are down by about 25% when compared to last year. Additionally, costs are going up faster than expected, leading to downwards pressure on margins. Given these uncertainties, companies continue to be conservative in terms of CAPEX and optimizing balance sheet health.  

In terms of the outlook for crude oil prices in 2023, the major headwind is weaker demand as economic growth decelerates across the world. Many expect the US economy to stumble into a recession later this year as the Fed keeps rates high to tamp down on inflationary pressures. Additionally, Chinese growth has also been less robust than expected following the end of its Covid policies. 

This is sufficient enough of a headwind to offset bullish impulses from OPEC cutting production, sanctions on Russian oil production, and the US government restocking its depleted crude oil inventories. 

Finsum: Earnings for the energy sector are expected to be down 21% compared to last year as recession concerns dominate. 

In an article for MarketWatch, Jamie Chisholm discussed some reasons for why stock market volatility has remained depressed despite the ongoing crisis in regional banks which some fear could lead to a credit crunch. In contrast, the stock market seems more responsive to economic data and the Federal Reserve. 

Economic data continues to signal an economy that is growing albeit decelerating but also not in a recession which would hurt corporate earnings. Q1 earnings also have come in stronger than expected. 

The Federal Reserve is in the final innings of its rate hike cycle. Futures markets are already looking ahead at rate cuts by the end of the year or Q1 of next year. And, inflation data continues to moderate and move in the right direction which is also supportive of asset prices. 

It’s also surprising that the market seems unconcerned about the debt ceiling deadline and a potential default, although there has been chatter about positive progress from negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. Surprisingly, the regional bank crisis is having little spillover impacts on the market or economy. In fact, the S&P 500 is 3% higher than from when the crisis began, while the Vix is nearly 10% lower. 

Finsum: One mystery for market participants is that volatility remains depressed despite ongoing struggles for regional banks and a looming debt ceiling deadline.

In an article for USA Today, Jessica Guynn summarized the current debate between those who advocate for ESG investing and those who see it as a disguise for ‘woke capitalism’. In contrast, supporters of ESG see these factors as being critical to their investing process. For instance, they see preparations for climate change as part of a managers’ fiduciary duty given its potential impact on asset values. 

These tensions came up at the House Oversight Committee meeting last week as Representative Rankin was critical of anti-ESG attacks which he said were coming at the behest of the fossil fuel industry. In turn, Republicans were equally harsh as they countered that asset managers should only consider financial information and that by considering non-financial factors, they were risking the retirement savings of American workers. 

At the state level, 17 Republican Attorney Generals jointly filed a motion to block Blackrock from advocating for ESG principles for utility companies. 

Many of those opposed to ESG see it as preventing energy companies from making sufficient long-term investments that are necessary to continue fossil fuel production and blame it, in part, for the inflation and oil spike during 2021.

Finsum: ESG investing continues to be a source of political conflict. These tensions came to a head at a contentious House Oversight Committee meeting.

In an article for Investopedia, Justin Kuepper shared some strategies for financial advisors to grow their practices. This type of planning is important to ensure that daily activities are aligned with your long-term financial goals as well as your client’s. Without consistently investing in these efforts, it’s likely that your practice will start to erode as clients who leave are not replaced. 

Instead, advisors should focus on carving out a specific niche such as focusing on a particular community, industry, or demographic. This will lend more expertise and credibility and lead to more curiosity and comfort from clients and prospects. You will also have less competition and be able to develop a brand which can be difficult given that financial advisors offer many of the same services. 

The next growth strategy is to provide exceptional service to your clients as it can lead to referrals which is the most effective form of marketing. Some advisors make the mistake of focusing too much on new business and see high rates of attrition when existing clients don’t feel valued. Putting these strategies in place also means that advisors don’t need to compromise on price as they will be offering a premium, differentiated service.

Finsum: Growing a financial advisory business takes planning and strategic thinking. Here are some tips to ensure success.