The IEA issued its outlook for the energy sector. Overall, global demand remains strong with daily demand at 101.9 million barrels, a 2.3 million barrel per day increase from 2022. In recent months, there has been some signs of North American gasoline demand declining but this has been offset by strong demand from Asia. For next year, it forecasts a smaller increase of 900,000 barrels per day.

Global oil production is expected at 101.6 million barrels per day. This is a 1,500,000 barrel per day increase from last year despite less production from OPEC+. So far, there is no impact on oil production from the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Yet, there is still a daily shortfall which exacerbates the impact of an escalation in geopolitical risk with the gap being made up by inventories.

The attacks did result in a $3 to $4 spike in oil prices, although prices quickly stabilized and remain off recent highs. Currently, there is a push and pull between upwards pressure on the supply side as Russia and Saudi Arabia pull back on production while higher interest rates threaten the demand outlook. So far, demand has proven to be resilient contrary to expectations at the beginning of the year. 

Finsum: The IEA issued its report on the oil market. It sees a small shortfall between global supply and demand which is being filled by inventories. 

As the year comes to a close, it presents an opportune moment for financial advisors to revisit strategies and offer valuable advice to clients. A timely topic is tax loss harvesting. And direct indexing is becoming a popular way for investors to accomplish this. Therefore, now is a great time to consider introducing the concept of direct indexing to your clients.

The Value of Tax Loss Harvesting

Tax loss harvesting is a technique that can reduce taxable income by selling securities that have incurred a loss. As we approach year-end, this tax-saving tactic may be appropriate for some of your clients, yet you need a convenient way to make these trades without upsetting their entire portfolio. Direct indexing allows you to accomplish this task.

Direct Indexing: No Longer Just for the Elite

Direct indexing, which involves buying individual stocks directly rather than through a fund, enhances the ability to tax loss harvest. While it's not a new concept, it's becoming more accessible to a broader range of investors. As author Medora Lee pointed out in her recent article in USA Today, "(direct indexing) was once mostly reserved for the affluent with at least $1 million to invest." But things are changing. "With better technology and zero- or low-commission trading now the norm, more people can use direct indexing."

Embracing the potential of direct indexing and tax loss harvesting is another way to demonstrate your value to your clients.

Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs) have been part of the investment landscape for several decades. However, a recent article from InvestmentNews.com suggests it's time for financial advisors to revisit the potential these accounts offer.

Driven by technological advancements, SMAs can now be highly adaptable, allowing for the development of customized investment strategies for a wide range of investor account sizes. This enables the alignment of investment approaches with specific investor objectives, such as tax management and adherence to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles.

Finance industry heavyweights are recognizing this potential, with companies like AssetMark, LPL Financial, and Morningstar launching or significantly enhancing their SMA platforms in the past few years. Their initiatives underscore the growing appetite for bespoke portfolio strategies that resonate with today's savvy investors.

Highlighting this trend, Aron Kershner, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, emphasized the modern appeal of SMAs. He described them as uniquely positioned to cater to "outcome-oriented" investors, whether they have philanthropic goals, are seeking an exit from a non-performing equity manager or are managing a highly concentrated stock position.

Given advancements in technology that have increased SMA's capabilities to align with investor's needs, advisors would be well-served to take a closer look at how they can use these accounts to serve their clientele.

Often, there is a mismatch between how an advisor spends his or her time, and what drives ultimate success for the practice. By embracing technology and model portfolios, advisors can free up more time to invest in activities that build their business such as client service, marketing, and prospecting.

Surveys show that client retention and satisfaction are ultimately linked to frequent communication. However, many advisors are spending a chunk of their time managing portfolios and researching investment ideas. In fact, some research indicates that advisor-managed portfolios underperform especially in more volatile markets. 

Now, there are increasingly more complicated and sophisticated investment options which increases the burden on advisors and further compromises client services. With model portfolios, advisors can outsource large parts of the process such as research, portfolio management, and onboarding while providing more options and better performance. 

By outsourcing this function, advisors can also reduce costs and create greater efficiencies. Model portfolios can also help in other areas such as tax management which is another priority for clients. By centralizing information, it can identify opportunities across portfolios and lead to a more personalized experience. 

Ultimately, model portfolios are a way for advisors to leverage technology to drive better outcomes for their clients and business while creating a more efficient practice.

Finsum: Model portfolios offer many benefits to advisors. The primary one is it frees up more time for client service. 

During Q3, there was a net outflow of $1.4 billion from renewable energy funds. Overall, there has been a 23% drop to $65.4 billion in total assets in renewable energy funds from the end of Q2. 

Renewable energy companies have underperformed due to high rates and rising costs which are compressing margins. Given that many of these companies have high multiples, they are more sensitive to rising long-term rates which makes future projected cash flows less valuable.

While there was a burst of enthusiasm around the sector following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), many stocks in the sector are down between 30 and 50% since then. For instance, the iShares Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) is down 39% since the IRA’s passage in August of last year.

Some of the issues they’ve faced include project delays, long timelines for permits in addition to the headwind of higher material costs and interest rates. As a result, many high-profile projects in Europe have been delayed or canceled due to these constraints. Another contributing factor for outflows out of the sector is that artificial intelligence has become the new ‘hot’ growth theme in 2023 with the theme attracting significant flows.

Finsum: Renewable energy funds experienced major outflows in Q3 due to a variety of factors. 

Yields on long-term Treasuries have broken out to 16 year highs. This has unleashed considerable volatility for bonds amid uncertainty about the economy’s trajectory and the Fed’s next move.

At the same time, many investors are looking to take advantage of this weakness and increase their exposure to the asset class especially with yields at such attractive levels. However, the current environment may be more suitable for active fixed income ETFs like the T. Rowe Price QM US Bond ETF (TAGG) rather than the typical passive options. 

Active managers have more freedom and flexibility when it comes to credit quality and duration, meaning they are able to take advantage of market inefficiencies. And, there are likely more inefficiencies in the current environment due to the cloudy economic and monetary outlook.

As an example, TAGG invests in investment-grade fixed income securities, including corporate and government debt and mortgage and asset-backed securities across all sorts of maturities. Additionally, TAGG still retains many of the benefits of passive strategies such as low costs and diversification. 

Finsum: The current environment is unusually uncertain and volatile for fixed income investors. Here is why active strategies are a better fit for the current environment.

Strive Asset Management, the upstart asset manager which was founded by Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, is launching its own model portfolio offerings. Strive is seeking to compete with Blackrock and Vanguard by solely focusing on economic factors when it comes to investing rather than also accounting for non-economic factors like ESG.

Strive’s model portfolios would also have the same investing and voting style as its funds. In its filing, the company said, “Strive engages in advocacy intended to encourage public companies to focus on economic factors in maximizing value for shareholders. This may include submitting or supporting shareholder proposals at public companies, advocating for changes in management or corporate structure at public companies, and a wide variety of corporate and/or public engagement.”

Its model portfolios would use existing Strive ETFs and one third-party ETF. In terms of fees, Strive would only receive its ordinary ETF fees and not charge any additional fees for its models. Currently, the asset manager has launched 11 ETFs with expense ratios between 5 and 49 basis points.

As of last month, these 11 ETFs had just over $1 billion in assets. The company aims to appeal to conservative-minded investors who are turned off by focus on ESG and other non-economic factors when it comes to investing and shareholder initiatives.

Finsum: Strive Asset Management is launching model portfolios as it looks to compete and take market share away from more established asset managers.

The rising rate environment has been brutal for REIT stocks with double-digit losses in 2022. In 2023, the sector saw decent gains in the first-half of the year, however these gains have been wiped out amid the breakout in longer-term yields. 

However, this could be setting up a contrarian opportunity especially as the odds of a ‘soft landing’ continue to inch higher. Inflation is moderating, while the economy continues to modestly expand as evidenced by the September jobs report and upwards revisions to the July and August payroll data. In addition, Q2 GDP was better than expected, and consumer sentiment continues to move higher.

In essence, a soft landing scenario would be bullish for residential REITs. It implies no significant spike in defaults, while lower rates would also lead to a generous tailwind for the sector. In contrast, commercial REITs are facing more significant challenges and have more structural issues especially with offices and retail. 

To be clear, the odds of a soft landing have increased, but it’s far from a certainty. Some threats to this outlook include a resurgence of inflation or the economy suddenly deteriorating due to pressure from higher rates. 

Finsum: The odds of a soft landing have moved up higher after a recent spate of positive economic data. Here’s why residential REITs would outperform in such a scenario.

Alternative investments encompass everything excluding equities, fixed income, and cash or money markets. According to Angie Spielman,the founding partner and a financial advisor at Manhattan West, this is a great time to invest in alternatives, and she recommends a 33% allocation for her clients assuming that it fits their risk profile. 

Demand for alternatives is growing given that the asset class outperformed in 2022 while both stocks and bonds posted negative returns. Additionally, it’s proven to be a source of positive returns and diversification. 

Spielman sees the new benchmark portfolio as being equally divided between equities, bonds, and alternatives. Although, she warns that this mix is not appropriate for more risk-averse clients. She also believes that private markets will outperform public markets over the next decade. Within the asset class, she favors private equity, venture capital, real estate, and private debt. 

In addition to benefiting existing clients, providing access to these types of investments can also attract prospects who are more risk-tolerant and seeking diversification. She recommends easing new clients into these types of investments with smaller sums at the beginning. Alternative investments do typically have higher fees and tend to have less liquidity and transparency than traditional options. 

Finsum: Alternative investments are growing in popularity and offer specific benefits to advisors and clients. 

2023 has been the year of active fixed income based on inflows and new issues. Nearly every asset manager has been jumping on the trend as we’ve seen launches from Blackrock, Capital Group, and Vanguard in the last couple of months.

The latest to join the fray is JPMorgan which announced the JPMorgan Active Bond ETF (JBND) which will trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The ETF will invest in a diversified portfolio of intermediate and long-term debt securities with a focus on securitized debt products. It seeks to differentiate itself with an emphasis on value through careful security selection and aims to outperform the benchmark, Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, over a 3 to 5 year time frame. In addition, JBND has a cost basis of 30 basis points.

Active fixed income is benefitting from the current volatility and uncertainty regarding monetary policy. There’s also a fundamental shift in the wealth management space as institutions and advisors are more familiar with these types of products vs mutual funds. And, many younger advisors and investors prefer the ease and familiarity of the ETF structure vs mutual funds. Therefore, asset managers are introducing ETF versions of their most popular active fixed income funds. 

Finsum: Active fixed income continues to be a hot space with JPMorgan launching another offering. Here are some reasons for the category’s growing popularity.