Displaying items by tag: alternatives

With the U.S. presidential election approaching, markets are anticipating potential volatility, and investors are weighing where to allocate their money. While some hedge funds are positioning for “Trump trades,” U.S. Global Investors instead sees growing opportunities in alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin. 

Paul Tudor Jones shares this perspective, highlighting these assets as hedges against rising U.S. debt and inflation concerns. The national debt has reached unsustainable levels, doubling its GDP ratio over 25 years, and the federal deficit continues to climb. 

As inflation impacts traditional assets, commodities like gold, silver, and Bitcoin have become more attractive as they tend to perform well in inflationary environments. 

Finsum: Despite election-related uncertainties, holding alternative assets may help investors maintain portfolio stability in the long run.

Alternative investing, which includes assets like private equity, real estate, and hedge funds, is becoming more accessible beyond just the ultra-wealthy and institutions. These investments can enhance portfolio diversification and potentially mitigate risk due to their low correlation with public markets. 

Utilizing self-directed IRAs for alternative investments offers the added benefit of tax-free growth. The popularity of alternative assets is rising, with private market assets growing significantly and individual investors currently holding a small percentage of these assets. 

Diversifying with alternatives can help manage market risk, especially during volatile times. New investment platforms are making it easier to access alternative investments, allowing for a more customized and balanced portfolio approach.

The total value of buyout deals in PE is projected to reach $521 billion by year-end, an 18% increase over 2023, driven by larger transaction sizes. However, divestitures are stagnating, leaving funds with aging assets and prompting investors to seek higher returns. 

The 10 largest buyout funds have raised 64% of the total capital, while one in five smaller funds remain below their fundraising targets. Bain & Company's Private Equity Midyear Report highlights that the sector has raised $422 billion by mid-May 2024, with buyout funds leading at $199 billion. 

Despite a slight decline in fundraising overall, the report notes a historical low in activity volume, with significant dry powder yet to be deployed. Additionally, the report foresees stable growth in divestitures, but 2024 could still be one of the lowest years for exits since 2016.

Finsum: Privates could begin to slide as rates normalize and people look to traditional products, but we are a little far from that happening. 

The term beta represents an investment’s volatility relative to the overall market and is a concept that experienced investors understand well. Beta measures the sensitivity of an investment to overall market movements and is a measure of systematic risk, with the market typically represented by a broad index like the S&P 500. 

High beta stocks exhibit more volatility and are typically growth stocks, while low beta stocks are less volatile and often include value stocks in defensive sectors. But this approach should be used when thinking about alternatives because they are being used to balance a portfolio.

Beta can change over time due to economic conditions and changes in a company's operations or industry. When assessing alternative investments, combining beta with correlation provides insight into an investment's potential role in a portfolio, enhancing diversification and risk management.

Finsum: You don’t need complicated financial models to assess beta, and integrating this historical return factor could greatly improve portfolio performance. 

There are increasing concerns that a crisis is brewing in commercial real estate (CRE), as over the next couple of years, $2 trillion in CRE loans will need to be refinanced. Previously, there were hopes that macro conditions would soften, leading to lower rates and a more favorable lending environment. Instead, inflation has proven to be more resilient than expected, and expectations of Fed dovishness have been dialed back.

In addition to high rates, major challenges include decreasing demand for offices and rising vacancies, a stricter lending environment, and balance sheet woes at regional banks, which traditionally account for a large share of CRE lending. However, there is significant variance within the CRE market. Areas like data centers, hotels, and industrial buildings continue to show strength, while retail and multifamily exhibit more mixed performance.

If conditions worsen, there is a risk of spillover effects on the broader economy, including decreased lending activity due to losses at banks, lower tax revenue for local governments due to more vacancies and lower property values, and subsequent declines in hiring. However, the consensus continues to be that there won’t be a full-blown crisis as the sector is sufficiently diversified and continues to have strong credit performance despite adverse conditions.

Finsum: Investors should pay attention to the CRE market given the refinancing cliff and challenges posed by higher rates and a stricter lending environment.