Displaying items by tag: Ukraine

According to a new survey from advisory and accounting firm EisnerAmper, inflation is the largest business challenge for alternative investment managers. The annual survey was conducted during EisnerAmper’s 7th Annual Alternative Investment Summit. It revealed that almost three-quarters of alternative investment professionals believe the U.S. is already in a recession or will enter one by the end of the year. In addition to inflation, geopolitical concerns and escalating regulatory obligations were also named as top business challenges for alternative investors over the next year. Peter Cogan, Managing Partner of EisnerAmper’s Financial Services Group stated that “2021 has been a rollercoaster for alternative investment managers. The ongoing war in Ukraine, coupled with global records of inflation and poor public market performance have forced investors to be nimble in their investment philosophies. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that they’re steadfast in their mission to lower inflation and the survey shows that alternative investors expect this to be a long-term challenge to navigate.”

Finsum:According to a recent survey of alternative investment professionals, inflation, geopolitical concerns, and escalating regulatory obligations are the top business challenges for alternative firms.

Just after many Wallstreet firms were predicting oil prices to skyrocket passed $130 the jets have started to cool and oil prices are falling. Oil dipped below $100 a barrel this week and the two biggest factors are demand destruction and China’s latest Covid-19 outbreak. In the U.S. the Ukraine war and high gas prices are deteriorating the demand for commodities and demand is beginning to weaken which in turn affects energy prices. Demand will drop by 1.4 million barrels a day according to Rystad Energy. Additionally, the U.S. is a strong dollar is making it hard to purchase oil-backed goods abroad. China’s lockdown in Shanghai drastically reduces global demand and could be a threat in the intermediate future. If Bejing follows suit it could be devastating.

Finsum: Oil investors should watch out for Russia, which is starting to feel the pressure on its economy.

Investors, advisors included, seem to be wondering why the stock market has done quite well since Thursday morning when Russia invaded Ukraine. Many expected stocks to tumble—and they initially did—but the opposite has happened, with the S&P 500 up around 5% since the close of business on the 23rd. The reason why has everything to do with the Fed and interest rates. The market now thinks the Fed is in a bind and won’t be able to hike rates as fast as they would have been able to before the conflict. This would mean a slower stop of the easy money surge that has gone on for years. Markets are now only forecasting a 12.5% chance of a 50 bp hike in March.

FINSUM: Stocks have jumped as a simple reaction to the fact that the path of rate hikes looks less steep right now than it did a week ago, which is also why the tech-heavy Nasdaq has jumped the most.

(Washington)

While it never really seemed to be in doubt, it is all but certain now that Democrats are going to bring articles of impeachment against President Trump. The party is likely to bring two separate articles against Trump by today, with an additional one possible. One will be focused on abuse of power, and the other one or two on obstructing Congress and obstruction of justice. In response to Republican criticism that the Democrats are rushing the impeachment process, Jerrold Nadler said “I want to be absolutely clear: the integrity of our next election is at stake. Nothing could be more urgent”.

FINSUM: No surprises here, but this will likely all be for nothing because of the Senate.

(Washington)

Between all the whistleblowers, and the questions over whether they actually had first hand knowledge, the ongoing impeachment inquiry centered on Trump’s phone call with Ukraine has become more confusing by the day. However, fresh news today has added weight to the situation. In particular, career US envoy to Ukraine William Taylor gave a deposition to the House inquiry which stated that Trump made the payment of US security assistance to Ukraine explicitly tied to the Ukrainian president opening a public investigation into Biden. Taylor says that in exchange for the aid to Ukraine, “President Trump did insist that President Zelensky go to a microphone and say he is opening investigations of Biden and 2016 election interference, and that President Zelensky should want to do this himself”.

FINSUM: Regardless of your position on this, Taylor’s testimony adds a lot of weight to the situation, as this is no longer an anonymous whistleblower. The impeachment inquiry just got more serious.