Eq: Utilities (4)
(New York)
Retail and recession have a complicated relationship. On the one hand, a downturn in the economy will almost always hammer consumer spending, which means the sector is broadly exposed. However, such economic challenges often create huge victors in the space as it becomes a winner-take-all environment. With that in mind, here are some stocks to own, and some not to. In the last recession, it was cost-conscious retailers, like Dollar Tree and Dollar General that surged. High-priced, discretionary merchandise, like Williams-Sonoma and Restoration Hardware, did the worst. This seems likely to play out again, so take a look at Aaron’s, Dollar General, Five Below, National Vision, and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet.
FINSUM: Hard to argue with this logic, but we would not be surprised if the coming (potential) recession offered some surprises in terms of consumer behavior.
(New York)
One of the interesting aspects of the market this year is that the sectors that are doing best are not the ones an investor would naturally expect. For instance, the sector which is blowing away the S&P 500 is utilities. The stocks have been doing so well, they are showing up in momentum oriented funds, which is a rarity. The sector is known for its solidity and stable returns, but right now utilities are hot. Over the last twelve months, utilities have returned 21.2% versus the S&P 500’s 7.3%.
FINSUM: You don’t usually think of utilities getting hot, but because rates are falling at the same time as real estate weakening, utilities are taking a lot of capital that is usually split with REITs.
(New York)
Stocks have been doing well this year, but we are willing to bet that the sectors that have been performing best over the last 12 months are not the ones you expect. With all the fears over rate hikes in the last year, it is hard to imagine that utilities and REITs are both up nearly 20% in the last 12 months, far ahead of the S&P 500’s 4.08%. Even tech is only up about 5%.
FINSUM: The most exciting thing about this performance is that the runway for income investments looks like quite strong—the Fed is unlikely to hike, which means there seems to be little rate risk.
(New York)
One of the challenges that all advisors are dealing with at the moment is how to handle rising rates and their affect on portfolios. There are good options out there for handling the challenge, like rate hedge ETFs, but within the efforts to defend against losses, there have a been a few hard-to-predict moves. One big surprise has been the performance of utilities stocks. Utilities generally lose when rates rise as their yields look relatively less attractive. However, utilities are outperforming the market, with a flat performance this month through Monday, and a 6% gain in the last three months. Explaining the gains, one fund manager says “'In a market like this, in a dramatic sell-off, the rotational effects will be higher than the interest rate effect”.
FINSUM: We sort of understand the safe haven status, but how does a rate-sensitive sector become a safe haven from rate-driven losses? Nonetheless, utilities stocks are doing well.