Economy
Q1 GDP came in negative for 2022 which means all it takes is a subsequent negative output report for the U.S. to slip into a recession. Goldman Sach’s Chief Economist David Mericle says this slowdown is all but inevitable, however it comes with a small advantage for markets. That is if the U.S. does slip into a recession or advanced slowdown, the Fed has no option but to stall rate hikes. All of this culminates in Goldman predicting a 75 bps hike in July, 50 bps in September, and slowing to just a quarter point in the final two meetings. Mericle is calling for a 30% chance of a recession with ultra-low 1.5% growth in the upcoming year. However, this would be quite a swing from the jobs report we have seen in recent months with strong numbers and positive growth.
Finsum: Most of Q1 GDP growth slowing was because of government spending, and consumer activity was remarkably robust; people may be too bearish about the economy.
With fixed-income securities starting to look attractive again, fixed-income ETFs saw the most inflows during the week ending July 15th. Over $7.6 billion flowed into ETFs last week with over 90% ($6.9 billion) flowing into U.S. fixed income ETFs. The iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) saw the highest weekly inflows with $2.4 billion. It appears investors are adding fixed income back to their portfolios as yields have risen above 3%. The June Consumer Price Index came at a scorching hot 9.1%, which means the Fed is expected to increase rates another 75 or even 100 basis points in their next meeting. This could drive bond yields even higher. That makes bonds more attractive to investors and money managers due to higher yields and lower prices which should result in more flows into fixed-income ETFs.
Finsum: Higher inflation combined with rate hikes are making fixed-income securities more attractive to investors leading resulting in fixed-income ETFs dominating fund flows.
Even with the market up for a third straight day, don’t expect volatility to disappear anytime soon. That is according to two market strategists. In a recent media appearance, Citi's Institutional Clients Group chairman Leon Kalvaria warned that more market volatility is to be expected until inflation and rate hikes stabilize. In a separate media appearance, BlackRock Americas iShares Investment Strategy Head Gargi Chaudhuri also says he expects volatility to continue on the backdrop of higher inflation and increased politicization. Recent gains aside, with rates expected to continue to move higher and consumers feeling the crunch of higher energy and food prices, market volatility is likely here to stay.
Finsum: With more expected rate hikes to combat persistent inflation, don’t expect market volatility to disappear anytime soon.
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Investors are shortening up their duration to the ultra-short fixed income ETFs which were first created about 15 years ago. Originally used for cash management, many investors are looking to these ETFs for security in the economic turmoil flummoxing markets currently. Generally, these assets have been tough to classify but by in large they are of duration of less than a year. SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF and State Street Global Advisors saw large inflows in the first half of 2022. While these assets generally get an uptick during volatility, they are seeing special attention due to interest rate risk. With inflation setting 40-year records investors want security against the Fed's rapid tightening cycle which is pushing up yields and bond prices lower. This means they are buying ultra-short duration debt with less risk.
Finsum: The latest GDP release will be a huge tell for the Fed because it could stall tightening if we slip into a recession.
Artificial Intelligence has revolutionized many industries, but it has also had a profound impact on the financial world. The next phase could be producing alpha-generating model portfolios. Models are already widely used in the financial world with more than 4/5ths of advisors utilizing them for their clients. Companies like UX Wealth Partners are taking that to the next level by integrating the latest machine learning techniques into their strategies to gain an edge. One such example is AIQQAI which uses patterns and probabilities to determine a bullish or bearish outlook on the market for the next week which decides how much to invest in cash vs the QQQ ETF. This has led it to have a 26 percentage point advantage over the QQQ in almost the whole first half of 2022. Companies utilizing models and embracing technology could forma new path moving forward.
Finsum: Fintech innovations such as machine learning will be critical to the growth of models, ETFs, and direct indexing in the next decade.
Market volatility is seemingly endless these days and with more inflation or even worse, a recession, potentially around the corner, investors need options. However, knowing if the market has bottomed out is hard which is why you should employ a strategy you might already use to get through high volatility, dollar-cost averaging. Most likely already implemented in your 401(k) contributions, dollar-cost averaging is putting fixed amounts over periods of time into the market, say monthly or bi-weekly. This helps mitigate the risks of lump-sum investing at the wrong time but still keeps a steady long-term approach to your financial investment. Dollar-cost averaging is the Goldilocks solution to timing the market and sitting out the volatility and for young investors, it's an especially great strategy to keep in a long-term approach.
Finsum: No need to get wildly creative in volatile times, simple strategies can be enough to navigate high volatility.