Eq: Total Market
“While PPP has gotten the bulk of media attention, millions of small business owners are just as upset about EIDL Advance payments”, says Duncan MacDonald-Korth, co-creator of COVID Loan Tracker. “The problem was so bad that we decided to build a tracking tool to help small business owners understand where their application stood”.
COVID Loan Tracker, which started last month to help small business owners find out when and where PPP money was flowing, says that the SBA has not been paying EIDL Advances on the “first come first serve” basis that they promised. “We have mountains of evidence showing that the SBA is not paying these in the order they were received”.
EIDL Advances were supposed to be $10,000 paid to each applicant within three business days. Fast forward around seven weeks and most have still not received it, and those who do only get $1,000 per employee.
As a response, COVID Loan Tracker has built a tracking tool that helps small business owners see where they are in the SBA’s process. In particular, it shows whether others who applied at the same time have been paid, or if those who applied later have been paid ahead of you.
Instructions for the EIDL Advance Tracker:
1. Fill out the survey
2. Refresh the page
3. Enter your application number into the tracker and it will automatically show results (note: you may have to wait 10 seconds or so for the tracker to reflect your survey submission)
(Washington)
The Center for Disease Control made a pretty worrying announcement today. The CDC has previously warned that American could see a big uptick of the COVID-19 virus in the Fall, when temperatures cool down and flu season ramps up. It echoed that more strongly this week, citing evidence that the virus is gaining ground in the southern hemisphere as their winter takes hold. According to Robert Redfield, head of the CDC, “We’ve seen evidence that the concerns it would go south in the southern hemisphere like flu [are coming true], and you’re seeing what’s happening in Brazil now … And then when the southern hemisphere is over I suspect it will reground itself in the north”.
FINSUM: The reality is that a vaccine will not be ready before the next flu season starts, so it is pretty easy to imagine that the virus might see a big second wave in the Fall that leads to another lockdown.
(Atlanta)
The market is making a very strong bet that American Airlines—one of the largest carriers in the US—is going to fail. Bloomberg data shows that based on credit default swap pricing, investors think there is nearly a 100% chance of the Texas-based carrier defaulting in the next five years. There is nothing particularly unique about American Airlines’ exposure to the COVID crisis, except that it has a great deal more debt than other carriers, making it much more vulnerable. For its part, American is trying to “right size” its budget and is planning to downsize its operating expenditures by about $12 bn this year.
FINSUM: Cost cuts are great, but if your revenue has fallen 90%+ plus, all the costs cuts in the world aren’t likely to keep up.
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(New York)
The S&P 500 hit a wall last week and saw its worst performance in a couple of months. Today notwithstanding, the market could be in for another big fall, according to Barron’s. Stocks fell 2.7% and it could be a sign that a reversal is coming. According to Nomura, “If [the S&P 500] continues to fail, you’ll hear about topping patterns, lower highs, exhaustion, and a lack of momentum”.
FINSUM: So the argument here is basically “death spiral caused by attrition”, so sort of like someone pushing a boulder up a hill and when they can’t quite get it to the top, they tumble back down. We are inclined to disagree here given that the Fed is sending such strong support signals.
(Washington)
Fed chief Powell made an interesting warning today. Powell said it will probably take a vaccine to get the economy into a full recovery. “For the economy to fully recover, people will have to be fully confident. And that may have to await the arrival of a vaccine … it may take a while . . . it could stretch through the end of next year, we really don’t know”, he said. Despite the hesitancy, the Fed has been very supportive in its statements of the support it will provide, saying the central bank could do a much more to help the recovery if needed.
FINSUM: This statement is really helping markets today, as combined with good news on a promising new treatment and the lack of a second wave forming (yet), things are looking up.
(New York)
After falling nearly 3% last week markets went off like a rocket ship today. From well before the main trading open, futures had been jumping on rising optimism. The big gains seemed to be centered on three critical aspects. Firstly, the Fed made a strong statement of support for how it would continue to help the economy. Secondly, there was good news about a new potential vaccine. Thirdly, despite broad reopening across the country, there has been little sign of a “second wave”.
FINSUM: As of the time of writing, today’s gain had already exceeded last week’s losses. Is it time for another big push higher?