(Istanbul)

There is a big mess going on in Turkey. The country’s spat with the US is playing out in financial markets, and it is really starting to hurt. The Lira is dropping fast, and the country’s benchmark bond yield just hit a whopping 20%. The huge losses in the currency and bond market might also lead to a rout and/or chaos in the country’s banks, which are now only weakly capitalized.

FINSUM: It is important not to muddle Turkey with other emerging markets, as many of its problems are specific to itself. Still, there are similarities and a renewed widespread selloff does not seem out of the question.

(New York)

Everyone knows mutual funds have been on the decline and ETFs on the rise as active management gives way to the rise of passives. However, new data throws a wrench into that narrative—hedge funds are surging in popularity. Hedge funds now account for 28% of all alternative asset demands among investors, just one point shy of private equity, and way up from 12% a year ago. The catch is that hedge funds don’t really look like themselves anymore, with new fund structures, such as separately managed accounts and lower fees, that make them more useful for investors. Co-investing is another big growth area, where major investors invest alongside hedge funds in specific deals.

FINSUM: So hedge funds have surged in popularity, but they are not hedge funds, in the same sense, as before. Further, fees are down, with the average being a management fee of 1.45% and a performance fee of 17%.

(New York)

Technology, trade wars, and social attitudes are changing the world and economy rapidly. How can investors adapt their strategies to keep up and “future proof” their portfolios? Well, Barron’s has run a piece doing just that. The stocks chosen include: Bridgestone, BNP Paribas, Lix, Dabur India, and Bharti Infratel. Bridgestone, a Japanese tire company, seems as though it would be hurt by tariffs and the rise of Uber. However, the opposite is the case, as most tires are made close to where they are sold (so no tariffs), and the rise of Uber and self-driving cars will actually increase the most important performance metric for tire companies: miles driven.

FINSUM: We wrote an article espousing tire makers a few months ago but we like the view even better now. No matter who, or what, is driving a car, rubber will still meet road, meaning tires will be in demand. Further, since parking for self-driving cars may be expensive, we can imagine fleet operators keep them driving around 24/7, increasing demand for rubber.

(New York)

Investors be warned, JP Morgan has just issued an ominous warning—that ten-year Treasury yields will jump to 5%. JP Morgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, has long argued that yields would rise to 4%, but now says the figure might be 5%. “I think rates should be 4 percent today … You better be prepared to deal with rates 5 percent or higher - it’s a higher probability than most people think”. Dimon sees a recession on the horizon, but he does admit there may be time for the bull market to continue, saying it could “actually go for 2 or 3 more years”.

FINSUM: Ten-year yields are currently having trouble sustaining 3%, so it is hard to imagine them going to 5% any time soon. Still we thought the warning was worth sharing.

(New York)

The next recession has been talked about seriously for the last year or so, and discussion of it is rising now. But what might actually trigger the next downturn? The New York Times sees three possible triggers. The first is the Fed playing the economy wrong and sending the the country into a recession by being overly aggressive with rate hikes. In this scenario, 2020 seems like the doom year. Then there is the risk of the debt bubble bursting (just like the last recession), this time in corporate debt, which has seen a huge surge in issuance since the Crisis. Finally, the looming trade war could drive the whole global economy downward, sparking a major recession.

FINSUM: The corporate debt bubble bursting is a good insight, but much less discussed than the others. It is also interesting because it would be highly linked to the Fed. Maybe that is the double whammy?