FINSUM
A Great Haven for Stormy Markets
(New York)
Are you looking for places to ride out the current storm in markets? It is a tough time to be doing so, as even traditional bastions of safety—utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples—have been deeply wounded lately. Here is one you probably haven’t thought of—Berkshire Hathaway’s stock. The captain of the Berkshire ship, Warren Buffett has long been a master of profiting in down markets, and with the company’s $100 bn in cash, the combination looks appealing. One CIO put it this way, saying “As a long-term Berkshire holder, this is the kind of environment that you hope for given all the cash … I love the risk-reward, embedded safety, and diversity of the earnings flows”.
FINSUM: Berkshire is not the kind of stock that is going to get hammered in down markets, and it would seem to have a lot of upside in such environments. Seems like a potentially good buy.
Stocks Still Aren’t Panicking
(New York)
Markets are ugly right now, but one of the important questions is whether the bottom is really going to fall out. Well, one measure suggests the market is steadier than it seems. Both the put-call ratio and the TRIN ration (ratio of advancing versus declining stocks) both suggest investors aren’t panicking. The put-call ratio is only at 1.04, or 104 puts for every 100 calls, a very modest reading. Additionally, the TRIN is only 1.27, not drastic.
FINSUM: One institutional investor made a good point about the market right now—that it might take some hard economic data to show the market that its fears are real, and thus set the stage for a recovery. In other words, the specter of a recession may be worse for investors than the downturn itself.
The Fed Just Daggered Markets
(Washington)
Yesterday was a big moment for Fed and the markets. Trump has come down hard on the Fed for its relentless hikes, and the market is in the midst of a very rough period. Additionally, labor figures and inflation data have started to slip. All of that meant the Fed had the option of backing off the pedal on hikes. They didn’t, raising rates another quarter point. The central bank did make the small concession of saying they only planned to hike twice next year instead of the four increases they made this year.
FINSUM: The housing market is bad, the stock market is terrible, credit markets are weak, and inflation is falling. Why is the Fed still hiking?
A Great Beaten Down Stock
(Portland)
A lot of investors may be looking for stocks with good value at the moment. Stocks that are badly beaten up, but have good underlying businesses, can be prime buys during adverse market conditions. With that in mind, take a look at Nike. The sportswear giant has shed 16% this quarter and will release earnings later today. Investors’ skepticism will either be proven correct, or wrong. The thing is, the core business looks compelling. The company gave guidance in September that it was expecting currency-neutral revenue to grow 9%. One analyst summarized the stock this way, saying “buy Nike into earnings. Nike sales are gaining momentum and the company is gaining market share across channels and geographies.”
FINSUM: Nike has done an admirable job catching up to rivals recently, as well as in passing on rising costs to consumers. Our instinct is that this is a good buy.
Beware, Even Safe Havens Aren’t Safe
(New York)
This is quite a market storm investors are facing. The rolling bear market has blossomed into a widespread rout with few hopeful signs. One of the scary parts for investors is that the old places to ride out such market storms are not collapsing. In other words, even safe havens aren’t safe. Consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities, all typically bastions of protection during downturns, fell to being this week. Utilities, for instance, fell over 3%, their worst tumble since the 2016 election day.
FINSUM: One analyst sees a silver lining in this. Their argument is that since this is becoming a broad pullback (instead of a rolling bear), it may indicate the worst is near to being over.