(New York)

Investors beware, the muni bond market has gone through some dramatic moves over the last year, and the market looks like it might be headed for a downturn. Changes to the US’ tax policy have caused massive inflows to muni bonds as investors try to minimize their taxes. This has caused yields to plunge and spreads to Treasuries to widen. The average ten-year muni yield is now just 1.965% versus 2.6% in 10-year Treasuries, the widest gap since at least 2009. Munis in high tax states have plunged even further, with a recent California issuance having a yield of just 1.73%. One portfolio manager warns investors that they need to be responsive, saying “The best place for investors to be is shorter duration, higher-quality credit, so when opportunities present themselves, they have the flexibility to take them … You can’t really set it and forget it”.

FINSUM: This is a hard situation to call. On the one hand, the rapid fall in yields is worrying and the market seems overbought, but on the other hand, you have somewhat artificial demand being created by the government, which makes the behavior less risky and more sustainable in our view.

(New York)

So what are the most popular funds held by mutual fund managers right now? This is always an interesting question, not only because it can give one ideas, but also because it can serve as a counter-indicator. Stocks that are very widely held tend to be over-bought and the most at-risk of falling sharply. The most popular stocks right now are Alphabet, Microsoft, Visa, Apple, Nestle, and Exxon-Mobil. Speaking about the outlook for these stocks, UBS, who made this report, says “Once these trades reach their critical value, or an exogenous shock occurs, we expect a sharp price reversal as investors unwind their exposure in tandem”.

FINSUM: Nothing particularly interesting in those top holdings, so the downside risk of them being there seems the most relevant.

(New York)

Any investor in ETFs will have noticed the marked rise of “factors” over the last few years. These are technical or conceptual overlays that managers use to create a theme for a fund. They are generally predicated on some type of data, like “quality” or “momentum”, both of which are well-studied. However, lately there has been an explosion of new factors which are being employed in funds. The problem is that many of these are not being observed on a long enough timeline to see if they are relevant. In practice, this means that a lot of funds are predicated around strategies that do not have any proof of concept.

FINSUM: So we have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, some factors seem clearly frivolous, while others which may also be quite new, seem to be a good angle on the current market environment. The key is to be very discerning in choosing these types of funds.

(New York)

A top hedge fund manager known for correctly calling both the 200 and 2008 crises, has just put out a very bearish call. Jeremy Grantham, from GMO, is warning investors that the next 20 years of returns are going to be very disappointing. Grantham thinks that even a dovish Fed can’t save this market, saying “you can’t get blood out of a stone”. His view is that the market will return only 2% a year for the next decade, way lower than the ~6% average. “This is not incredibly painful, but it’s going to break a lot of hearts when we’re right”.

FINSUM: We have personally met Grantham and respect him, but this view is ridiculous to us, as it would be from anyone. Tell what the market might do for the next 2-3 years, fine, but making a call on the next two decades is hopeless.

(New York)

The current plan for a new New Jersey fiduciary rule is of a new breed. The proposal goes to lengths never seen in the fiduciary regulation world, far exceeding both the SEC best interest rule and the defunct DOL fiduciary rule. The proposal is officially called the “Fiduciary Duty of Broker-Dealers, Agents, Investment Advisers, and Investment Adviser Representatives” and includes an expansive definition of a “recommendation”, imposes a uniform duty on both advisors and brokers, and importantly, “creates presumptive breaches if brokers and advisors do not recommend the best reasonably available option and fee arrangement”. Unlike Maryland, the state doesn’t need an internal Senate vote to enact the rule.

FINSUM: This is a very strong rule that would set an alarming, and in our view, misguided precedent for other states, or even the DOL’s update of its own rule. A presumptive breach based on single recommendations sounds ludicrous to us. Almost all decisions can be made to look poor in hindsight. Further, defining what the “best” investment selection is at one point is nearly impossible.