(New York)

Deutsche Bank is an uber dove. The bank has just come out saying it expects the Fed to make three full rate cuts before the end of the year. “Over the past month, downside risks to the outlook for the US economy and Fed have built”, said Deutsche Bank, continuing that a mix of different concerns, from the trade war to weak inflation, are pointing to “more negative outcomes”. Pimco thinks the Fed won’t cut this month, but that it may cut by 50 bp in July, saying “we wouldn’t expect Fed officials to wait for the economic data to confirm declining US growth — if they do, they could risk a more meaningful shock to economic activity”.

FINSUM: The odds of a downturn certainly seem higher than an upturn, which means the Fed is much more likely to cut than to hike. That said, three rate hikes in the next six months sounds a bit aggressive to us, especially because the Fed would want to leave some firepower if the economy really heads downward.

(New York)

Barron’s has published a piece which covers a survey of wealthy Americans. The survey sought to find out how the wealthiest Americans felt about Senator Elizabeth Warren’s plan for a wealthy tax of 2-3% on those with over $50m or over $1 bn in wealth. The results were surprisingly, with 60% of wealthy respondents saying they would embrace the plan. The feedback was split on party lines, with 88% of Democrats agreeing, 62% of independents, and 36% of Republicans in favor of it.

FINSUM: We are somewhat skeptical of these stats. Advisors, please email us with any anecdotes on how your clients have reacted to this plan.

(New York)

Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York has just announced that he will sign a dramatic bill which overhauls New York’s rental market. The bill would make permanent laws which govern over one million apartments in New York City. The bill needs to pass through the state’s Assembly and Senate on Friday, but if enacted, would greatly limit landlords’ ability to work around rent control regulations. “We believe this is going to be a huge shift in the ability of people in New York City and the surrounding areas to live in their communities comfortably without fear of being displaced”, says Senator Brian Kavanaugh.

FINSUM: Looking at the details of this bill, it appears more an effort to get votes by saying ”we froze rent increases”, than it is a well-thought out plan. We wonder if this will have an impact on the growing package of incentives wealthy people have to leave the New York area.

(Washington)

Consider it a warning shot across the bow of Silicon Valley, the opening salvo in a potentially brutal antitrust war. The head of the Department of Justice said in a public speech yesterday that low prices and free services would not shield “monopolists” from scrutiny. “There are only one or two significant players in important digital spaces, including internet search, social networks, mobile and desktop operating systems, and electronic book sales … This is true in certain input markets as well. For example, just two firms take in the lion’s share of online ad spending”, said the head of the DOJ, Makan Delrahim. He continued “Like today’s tech giants, Standard Oil was pioneering and generated a number of important patents. Scholars have noted, however, that Standard Oil’s innovation slowed as it became an entrenched monopolist”. Delrahim also listed specific behaviors which would spark investigation, including bundling products together.

FINSUM: The government is poised to launch a large and multi-fronted war on big tech. How long this will take, or how it will play out in markets is anyone’s guess, but it is hard to find any positives as far as big tech company share prices are concerned.

(Washington)

Whereas the DOL’s first fiduciary rule was highly specific, the SEC’s new version of the best interest rule is anything but. The first version of the rule was reasonably vague, such as not defining “best interest”, but this new version is even more cloudy. For instance, industry players cannot agree if the rule is stronger or weaker than the last version. Some language has been removed that might make the rule seem weaker, but on the other hand, so much of it is constructed in a manner than tries to use context to make rules, that it is hard to tell. For instance, even the head of trade group Investment Adviser Association says that "People can look at this interpretation and select phrases that concern them or comfort them”.

FINSUM: The interesting thing here is that the SEC has deliberately taken the route of making the new rule implicit versus explicit. The whole methodology is designed around not defining things so that they cannot be worked around, but that makes the whole body itself up for interpretation.