(New York)

Rollovers are one of the most important and hotly contested areas of forthcoming regulation. The mostly defunct DOL rule stated that advisors need to act in the best interest of clients when dealing with rollovers only if the firm was a fiduciary. However, the big forthcoming change is that the SEC Best Interest rule essentially states that advisors AND brokers need to act in the best interest of clients all the time, but allows that disclosure of material conflicts can be sufficient to overcome any hurdles. According to Drinker Biddle & Reath, a leading wealth management law firm, “Reg BI standard of care obligation requires that a broker-dealer have a reasonable basis to believe that taking the assets out of the plan and rolling them over to an IRA is in the best interest of the participant at the time of the recommendation”.

FINSUM: So the DOL rule was very strict but fairly narrow in application, while the SEC rule is broader (encompassing brokers and fiduciaries) but less strict.

(New York)

The last month has been an unusually tough market. While the volatility itself is not highly irregular, what has been difficult is the rise of correlation. Over the last month, the market has traded the same way a whopping seven times. On those days, stocks, bond yields, and commodities have all traded in the same direction. When that happens it is very hard for investors to find a place to hide.

FINSUM: A couple of months ago using bonds as a safe haven seemed like a good idea. But prices have gone up so astronomically without a real change in the economy, that fixed income is looking like a fragile place to hide.

(New York)

New data just released shows the US economy is a bit weaker than everyone expected. Second quarter GDP data has been revised downward, showing that the US expanded at only 2.0% in the quarter instead of the first-reported 2.1%. Government spending, weaker exports, and private inventories weighed on the numbers. However, the very good news in the data is that consumer spending increase was the strongest in 4.5 years.

FINSUM: Consumer spending is at its highest levels since 2014 at the same time as bond yields are at extraordinary lows and everyone is worried about a recession. Either a recession will arrive or there will be some big losses in bond markets.

(Los Angeles)

Pimco is probably the most respected name in fixed income, and the firm just went on the record warning about the economy and encouraging the Fed to act. The asset manager argues that the US economy is in worse shape than many think and is admonishing the Fed to cut rates more aggressively than expectations. Pimco says that momentum in the labor market is slowing, the trade war is showing little sign of abating, and the risk of financial excess caused by lower rates appears minimal. According to Pimco, “We can’t emphasise enough that labour market momentum has decelerated more markedly than most forecasters were previously expecting”.

FINSUM: We actually are on the opposite side of the fence as Pimco. We think the market is blowing things out of proportion about the economy and is overly worried. We surely hope we are right.

(New York)

Investors tend to go to the same old ports to ride out the storm of a recession—gold, Treasuries, healthcare, utilities etc. However, finding a new safe haven can be not only the means to good protection, but also solid capital appreciation. With that in mind here is a very unglamorous, but potentially lucrative idea—buy garbage stocks. We don’t mean bad stocks, we mean stocks of solid waste companies, like Waste Management, Waste Connections, and Casella Waste Systems. Garbage companies are highly recession tolerant (it is not as if there is less garbage), and they tend to throw off huge amounts of free cash flow. Michael Hoffman, an analyst at Stifel is recommending these shares.

FINSUM: This seems like a very good recession hedge. Garbage is a very durable sector. Will this be the next recession star?