(New York)

Bonds have been in a bull market for the entire living memory of almost everyone in the financial industry. Yields are extremely low, prices are high, and stocks are peaking every week. Even if you are worried about bonds, the odds that they keep rising seem strong given some undeniably supportive factors. Those include a Fed that not only says it has no intention of hiking rates, but is actually undertaking a stealth form of QE by buying $60 bn of Treasury bills every month to make sure the financial system has adequate cash reserves.

FINSUM: Everything in the market is pointing to a repeat of the post-Crisis market paradigm—ultra-low rates, rising stocks. Should we expect a different outcome this time?

(Frankfurt)

New data on the EU economy has just come in and it isn’t pretty. Overall, the bloc grew just 01% in the fourth quarter, while Italy and France actually contracted. According to Commerzbank, “The spectre of recession is back … Economic growth in the eurozone came to a virtual standstill at the end of the year . . . The ECB is likely to view this with concern”. Ironically though, this may be positive for market as the ECB is likely to take an even more dovish approach.

FINSUM: It feels like we just did a time warp back to around 2013, when central banks were ready to stick to ZIRP for years. We all know how stocks performed then!

(New York)

The market had gone an incredible 70 days without a closing gain or loss of more than 1%. It was one of the longest streaks in history, but it all came crashing down this week as the Dow fell 1.6% and the Nasdaq fell 1.9%. The big question is what happens next. Generally speaking, it does not matter if a long streak of placidity is broken by a positive or negative move—stocks tend to keep doing well either way. Of the 12 times such a streak has happened, in 9 of the them gains were positive over the following year, with an average increase of 9.6% on a total return basis.

FINSUM: This is good historical context, but it is important to remember that none of those occurrences have anything to do with today’s market environment. That said, we remain bullish.

(New York)

Everyone has heard of the “Dogs of the Dow”, or the strategy of buying the laggards of the Dow. It is has been of the few highly successful value-based strategies over the last decade. If you have liked the Dogs of the Dow approach then check out “Fast Dogs”, which could be a good strategy. The idea is to buy the ten stocks with the fastest dividend growth in the Dow. The strategy has performed well in the last three years and just edged out the S&P 500’s performance (it is hard to track it further because dividend growth rate data is historically spotty). What will likely make this strategy successful is that companies with rising dividend growth are naturally signaling improvement and a brighter future, so an increasingly optimistic outlook is de facto. And of course, investors love dividends.

FINSUM: We like this idea. It would probably work better in rising rate markets, but generally speaking it seems like a smart approach in any environment.

(New York)

There has been a lot of speculation over the last year that FedEx might be a buyout target. This time last year, everyone thought Amazon would buy the logistics company to beef up its own network. That did not happen. Now the speculation is that it might be on Warren Buffett’s list. Buffett has expressed that he is itching to make an “elephant-sized” acquisition, and FedEx fits the bill in more ways than one. Not only is it huge, but it has a more than $125 bn hoard of cash. Buffett likes simple businesses with good management and large moats, or barriers to entry which prevent competition. FedEx fits the bill perfectly.

FINSUM: This feels like a match made in heaven. Both parties refuse to comment. Hmmmm…