Direct indexing has been all the rage this year with many researchers predicting it will be the "next big thing" in investing. For instance, a few weeks ago, a report from Cerulli Associates estimated that direct indexing is poised to reach more than $800 billion in assets by 2026. But not all research firms share this sentiment. According to a recent study by asset management research firm Blackwater Search & Advisory, direct indexing is a “niche service that mostly benefits specific high-net-worth investors.” The firm believes that without a wide range of investors, the growth of direct indexing may not be as large as previously thought. According to the report, “Direct indexing is not necessarily the best option for everyone. Not everyone needs or wants the degree of customization that direct indexing offers, and the variety of funds already existing on the market is more than enough to craft interesting portfolios.” Many pundits talked about direct indexing as an “ETF Killer” due to greater personalization and tax advantages. However, ETFs offer a broad range of funds that appeal to a much wider number of investors. So, while direct indexing may continue to grow its market share, it appears that it isn’t the “ETF Killer” it was once projected to be.

Finsum:Based on the results of a recent study, direct indexing may not see as much growth as previously thought due to the strategy mainly benefiting affluent investors.

If DataTrek Research is correct, we can’t expect a new bull market to commence until volatility declines. The research firm said that volatility isn’t expected to decline until two things happen. The first is the Federal Reserve stopping its interest rate hikes and the second is more clarity on corporate earnings expectations as we head into a potential recession next year. The firm believes that if investors can gauge those two factors, then they can capitalize on large stock market returns. They listed the S&P 500's 28% gain in 2003 after the dot-com bubble, the 26% gain in 2009 after the Financial Crisis, and the 61% surge from the COVID-19 low until the end of 2020 as examples. DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas stated, "For volatility to structurally decline and drive those high returns, investors need to have growing confidence they know how corporate earnings will develop. This means they must have a handle on monetary/fiscal policy." At present, investors are not sure about those factors. The Fed recently surprised the market when it indicated that it will likely raise rates by another 75 basis points next year and leave them higher for longer. In addition, analyst earnings estimates are all over the place.

Finsum:According to DataTrek Research, investors shouldn’t expect a new bull market in stocks until the Fed stops rising rates and there is more clarity on earnings expectations.

According to a post-viewer poll following a VettaFi active fixed-income webcast, financial advisors seemed to be warming up to having more actively managed bond ETFs in their client’s portfolios. After viewing the webcast Active Fixed-Income Answers to Tight Monetary Policy, half of the respondents said that they are very likely to increase their exposure to active ETF strategies in the future, while 37.5% said they are somewhat likely to do so. The poll also found that "56% said they were concerned that owning passive index-only ETFs left them too exposed to market conditions without forward-looking risk controls or the ability to pivot to make changes, with 44% saying they were ‘very concerned’.” Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi had this to say about the results, “With the heightened market volatility of 2022 likely to persist into the new year, advisors are increasingly interested in ETFs where, rather than shifting to a more offensive or defensive stance, they can take advantage of the expertise of managers who can shift exposure based on the latest developments.” With ETF firms launching more actively managed funds amid market volatility and inflation, investors are looking to active management to help guide their portfolios.

Finsum:A recent poll by VettaFi found that more advisors are seeing the importance of active fixed income in their client portfolios.

High Yield Bond ETFs have seen a resurgence in inflows over the past few months. Between September 9th to December 9th, $5.4 billion in capital moved into 53 high-yield bond funds that are part of ETF Central’s high-yield bond category. This includes inflows of $2.7 billion over the past month. The uptick in inflows suggests that investors are more willing to take on risk now. High-yield bond ETFs may have higher rates and return potential, but also come with greater default risk. The jump in flows can be attributed to lower-than-expected inflation data, which could lead investors to believe that the Fed might slow down its tightening cycle. For instance, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in October. In addition, many investors have been sitting on the sidelines due to the uncertainty in the market and waiting for the time to deploy cash into riskier investments such as high-yield bond ETFs. Plus, the spreads in high-yield bonds have been widening this year, which indicates lower prices and selling pressure on the category. With spreads still fairly wide, there is potential for more upside in high-yield bonds.

Finsum:High-yield bond ETFs are seeing a jump in flows on account of lower-than-expected inflation data, cash on the sidelines being put to use, and fairly wide spreads in high-yield bonds.

Merrill Lynch continues its recruitment of veteran advisors with the announcement that it lured away a duo managing $180 million in client assets from Morgan Stanley. The two-person team from Huntsville, Alabama is made up of 26-year veteran Lane P. Wilson and 15-year veteran Teri E. Miller. The pair, which joined Merrill on December 9th, produced more than $1 million in combined annual revenue. At Morgan Stanley, they had been part of a larger team called the Monte Sano Group. At least 11 members of that group remained at Morgan. Wilson started his career at MML Investors Services in 1996, moved to Compass Brokerage two years later, and then moved to Wells Fargo Advisors in 2006. He spent the following 13 years at Morgan Stanley. Miller, who had also been with Morgan Stanley for 13 years, started her career at Invest Financial Corp. in 2007. The office they are joining is part of Merrill’s community markets program that launched in 2018. The program is aimed at growing and retaining brokers in branches outside of Bank of America’s footprint. According to recruiters, Merrill returned to hiring traditional brokers from its rival wirehouses with high-end deals over the summer.

Finsum:Merrill Lynch reeled in a duo from Morgan Stanley that manages $180 million in client assets.