Franklin Templeton is optimistic about fixed income in the coming year due to the Federal Reserve ending its hiking cycle, and inflation continuing to trend lower. However, it believes that rates will remain at these levels for much of 2024 in order for inflation to fall to the Fed’s desired level, leading to a more challenging environment in the first-half of the year. 

Amid this backdrop, the firm is bullish on municipal bonds especially with so many investors on the sidelines, overweight cash, or in short-term credit. Municipal bonds offer historically attractive yields, favorable tax treatment, and a longer-duration which should outperform in an environment with falling rates and a flattening yield curve. 

The firm notes that local governments remain in strong shape from a fiscal perspective even despite a slowdown in economic activity and rising costs. Many still have excess funds leftover from federal aid during the pandemic and have been relatively disciplined in terms of spending. Further, muni bonds have lower default rates than corporate credit while also having higher after-tax returns. Franklin Templeton believes many investors will reallocate from money markets into municipal bonds in order to lock in yields at these levels especially as monetary policy eases. 

Finsum: Franklin Templeton is bullish on fixed income in the coming year. It also highlights a bullish case for municipal bonds due to the sector’s strong fundamentals and favorable positioning in this macro environment. 

Annuity sales hit a new record high in 2023 at $360 billion which exceeded last year’s record of $311 billion. Experts attributed this to a combination of anxiety about stocks and the economy paired with the high interest rates in decades. 

Typically, annuity sales spike during periods of economic uncertainty. However, sales had been muted over the last decade due to the prevalence of ultra-low interest rates. This is evidenced by 2008 being the last year that annuity sales exceeded $250 billion prior to 2022. 

Currently, the majority of annuity sales are fixed-rate deferred annuities which pay an average of 4.5%. Prior to the Fed’s tightening campaign, this annuity paid 1.5%. In contrast, sales of single premium indexed annuities and deferred indexed annuities were much lower. 

These annuities are the simplest as the buyer hands over a lump sum in exchange for an income stream that lasts through their life. They are also the most effective in terms of hedging longevity risk for clients. However, there is a tradeoff in terms of liquidity and being unable to access the money once it’s put into the annuity. In contrast, fixed-rate deferred annuities do have more liquidity and offer higher rates but come with higher costs.

Finsum: Annuity sales hit a new record high in 2023 due to fears of a recession and inflation in addition to high interest rates. 

Rich Hill, the head of Real Estate Strategy at Cohen & Steers, shared his bullish outlook for REITs in 2024. He sees falling interest rates, tightening credit spreads, and undervaluation as the biggest catalysts for significant gains over the next year. However, he cautions that office REITs have their own dynamics due to vacancy rates remaining elevated amid the increase in remote and hybrid work.

REITs benefit in two ways from lower rates - their yields become more attractive to investors on a relative basis, and it leads to lower financing costs. Hill points to improving credit markets as another reason to overweight the sector in the coming year. This means REITs will have an easier time accessing credit which will lead to more activity such as acquisitions and new projects. Historically, REITs have outperformed during periods of tightening spreads and falling rates. 

Another attractive component of REITs is that valuations are compelling as prices have declined over the past couple of years, while earnings have remained quite stable due to the economy avoiding a recession. Further, most REITs continue to have a relatively low cost of capital due to refinancing at lower rates in 2021. 

Finsum: Rich Hill of Cohen & Steers is bullish on REITs for next year. He sees falling rates, tightening credit spreads, and an improving credit markets as major catalysts. 

Single-stock ETFs were introduced in Europe in 2018 and last year in the US. Now, there are nearly 50 single-stock ETFs with the majority of them tracking mega cap tech stocks like Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla. Collectively, they have $3.3 billion in assets. Providers include Direxion, AXS, GraniteShares, and YieldMax and strategies fall under option income, bull, or bear.

The largest one is the Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 1.5x Shares which has over $1 billion in assets and tracks the underlying stock with leverage by using swaps and other derivatives. The second-largest at $841 million in assets is the YieldMax TSLA Option Income Strategy ETF. This category of single-stock ETFs will sell call options on the underlying stock to generate monthly income. 

The recent success of these ETFs isn’t surprising given the strong performance of tech stocks this year with many hitting all-time highs. According to Rich Lee, the head of ETF trading at Robert W. Baird & Co., more single-stock ETFs will be hitting the market due to strong demand for these products, and he expects more innovation as well.

The current crop of single-stock ETFs are more suited for short-term speculation rather than long-term investing given higher costs. In August, the SEC issued a warning about these products, “Because leveraged single-stock ETFs in particular amplify the effect of price movements of the underlying individual stocks, investors holding these funds will experience even greater volatility and risk than investors who hold the underlying stock itself,” which encapsulates the risks. 

Finsum: Single-stock ETFs are a small but fast-growing category. While they’ve performed well due to the bull market in tech, they remain unsuitable for long-term investors. 

For discerning investors seeking a personalized approach to wealth management, mutual funds are often just the tip of the iceberg of possible solutions. Mutual funds offer professional oversight and a level of diversification, but transparency and flexibility are not typically among their strengths. Enter Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs).

SMAs function like custom portfolios tailored to the account holder's unique risk tolerance, goals, and even ethical considerations. Want to prioritize tech stocks? Avoid fossil fuels? SMA customization lets investors and their advisors call the shots. And forget about waiting until the quarter or year-end to see the securities held by your fund - SMAs' full transparency of underlying investments provides crystal-clear clarity any time of the year.

Of course, with power comes responsibility. SMAs often require deeper engagement in the investment process, but the effort is often worth it for investors who want the added benefits.

While minimum account balances in the past for SMAs may have seemed intimidating, the tides are turning. Advancements in platforms and technology have lowered entry points, making customized wealth management more accessible than ever. For advisors seeking to cater to sophisticated clientele who value tailored solutions, SMAs deserve a closer look.

Finsum: Separately Managed Accounts offer an advantage over mutual funds for investors who desire greater transparency and flexibility in their accounts.