(San Francisco)

In what is a very odd and counterintuitive change, in just a matter of weeks, both Facebook and Google will be removed from the S&P 500’s “tech” sector. Indexes are changing up their alignments, and Google and Facebook, along with Netflix and Comcast, will all now move to a new group called “communications-services”. The changes are due to take place on September 28th and will force investors to trade in and out of billions of Dollars of holdings to realign their portfolios.

FINSUM: What this means is that the “tech” sector, and in factor no sector, will now be such a dominant component of the S&P 500. It may also reshape trading patterns, and according to some, boost volatility.

(Seattle)

It is no secret that President Trump is not a fan of Amazon. From his campaign right through until the present he has constantly threatened the company. Now he might have some fuel added to his fire. Amazon is currently putting tons of investment into expanding its logistics business, which will ultimately pose a threat to the United States Postal Service. Trump has already said that Amazon abuses USPS, and this will only embolden him. Trump wants USPS to double the rates it charges Amazon.

FINSUM: USPS lost almost $3 bn last year and hasn’t turned a profit in a decade. It does seem like Amazon is getting an unfair subsidy, but then again, it is up to USPS to set its rates.

(Beijing)

One of the big downside risks for the US in its current trade war with China concerns the fact that Beijing owns $1.18 tn of US Treasuries. They also own billions of US mortgage bonds. The big question is whether they will decide to use such ownership as a weapon against the US. For instance, if they sold off large quantities of the bonds, it could send US yields spiking. However, it seems unlikely they would do say for a number of reasons. Firstly, it would hurt the value of their own holdings and all their other Dollar-denominated assets, and it would engender a lot more punitive action from the US. Some consider it the economic equivalent of “mutually assured destruction”.

FINSUM: This is a grave risk for the US because of how it would push up rates all through the economy, but we do not think the trade war has gotten this serious yet.

(Washington)

Advisors all across the country see a major flaw in the SEC rule. Fiduciaries feel they are being completely short-changed by the rule because the way the SEC has drafted it makes advisors and brokers look like identical twins, almost eliminating the distinction from a client’s perspective, according to the “Raise Your Voice” campaign, or a group of advisors pushing against the rule. “The proposed rules depict broker and advisers as essentially the same, like identical twins, but without identical investor protections”, says the spearhead of the campaign, continuing that “The legal, contractual, business and cultural differences dividing brokers and advisers are important and must be clearly stated and explained”. The campaign is encouraging advisors to make their opinions heard while the SEC comment period is open (it closes August 7th).

FINSUM: The SEC tried to make a rule that avoided over-delineating things as part of an effort to avoid loopholes, but this non-standard approach has made many quite angry. We suspect the rule will be edited significantly.

(New York)

Ten-year Treasuries are currently sitting at 2.85%, and according to Barron’s, they aren’t going anywhere. The reason why seems to be three part: a weak inflation outlook, trade war, and the combination of so-so growth and a hawkish Fed. All of this makes investors comfortable with sub-3% yields, and the bonds are being supported by their safe haven nature. Another problem is that US yields are much higher than in other developed countries, such as in Europe, keeping demand for Treasuries high.

FINSUM: We see longer end yields as pretty pinned at the moment. There is not much to be bullish about in the long term economic outlook, so it is hard to see why Treasuries would slide.