(New York)

There has been a lot of consternation over markets this year, and with good reason. Between a trade war and rising rates, there has been a good deal to be nervous about. But in the last few weeks, something definitely changed, as exemplified by the Dow just recording its best month since January. Worries about the trade war have abated in the last couple of weeks, but the big question is whether recent gains are sustainable.

FINSUM: So on the question of sustainability of gains, big banks like Morgan Stanley, Citi, and Goldman Sachs have indicated this week that they think markets are destined for a near term correction. We aren’t so sure. We are suspicious of how prices have risen, but in this instance we are drawn to the old idea that markets love to climb a wall of worry.

(New York)

Just a day after Citi and Goldman Sachs warned of a market correction, Morgan Stanley has gone on the record with an even more stark warning. The bank says that an even stronger correction than February is looming and that the selloff is is imminent and has “just begun”. MS says that we are in the midst of a “rolling bear market”, and that almost every sector has been de-rated. Investors are unprepared for the big losses in tech, and the market has little to look forward to. Morgan Stanley says the drop will be bigger than earlier this year “if it’s centered on Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and small caps, as we expect”.

FINSUM: This is an even more stern warning than what we ran yesterday, and more specific too. Tech is already having a meltdown, but what really caught our eye was the threat to small caps, which have been on a great run.

(New York)

A lot of worries have been centered on the tech sector. While many are upset about the losses currently being felt, and even bigger fear is that tech might drag down the whole market. Well, Goldman Sachs says investors shouldn’t be too worried about that. The reason why is that while tech makes up a large part of the market’s current capitalization, earnings growth forecasts are much more broad-based, which will limit the fallout to the market as a whole. Goldman summarized their view this way, saying “From a fundamental perspective, narrow market leadership typically reflects narrow earnings strength, which is often a symptom of a weakening operating environment … Unlike past episodes of narrow market breadth, the earnings environment today appears healthy and broad-based”.

FINSUM: Goldman points out what should be a nice buffer, but we are more worried about the emotional, rather than rational, reaction of investors to falls in tech. That said, broad-based earnings strength is a good support.

(Tokyo)

Bond yields had been rising quickly in the US. The rise seemed to come out of nowhere for American investors, but most analysts said the quick jump in ten-year yields was due to a possible policy change by the BOJ to a less accommodative stance. However, the BOJ announced today that it would make only very minor changes and would remain highly loose in its monetary approach. The bank said it would not join other global central bank’s in tightening policy, and would leave rates ultra low for an extended period.

FINSUM: This is good news for bond investors, as Japanese tightening was interpreted as a major threat. This should help keep US yields looking attractive versus global yields, which will in turn keep them lower.

(San Francisco)

Apple’s earnings are always a big deal, but it is hard to remember a time where they were more important than right now. The tech sector, include the FAANGS, of which Apple is a member, have been getting routed. The Nasdaq has fallen strongly as a result of this, but the Dow, of which Apple is the only FAANG member, has held up reasonably well. The market is getting increasingly anxious about how tech stocks might affect the whole market, and how the sector performs seems like it is being taken as a bellwether for the economy. Thus, all now hinges on Apple.

FINSUM: If Apple puts in good earnings, then the market might stay strong and consider tech’s issues isolated. If Apple’s earnings are poor, it could lead to a broad selloff.