(Houston)

When oil falls it tends to boost the US economy. For all the growth of our shale industry, the US is still a net importer of oil. When prices fall, Americans tend to spend more on other items that boost the economy, so oil prices sinking is usually good news. However, this time around, the fall will be bad, at least according to the Wall Street Journal. The problem is that the oil industry has grown large enough that capital expenditures in the sector make a major impact on growth. Accordingly, the capex cut that will come from falling prices will be prove a net detriment to GDP figures.

FINSUM: When oil fell in 2014-2016, US economic output also slowed, so this is a very real affect. What is worse is that it will likely show up in 2019, which is already looking to be a much weaker year.

(New York)

Christmas is not looking very merry for retailers. While 2018 has been kind to retailers, especially compared to 2017, the fourth quarter has been rough. The stocks have been getting hammered on the back of weak guidance from a handful of companies in the sector. Not only are retailers under topline pressure from ecommerce, but costs are rising too, squeezing margins. As an example, Target’s shares fell 9% on Tuesday and the shares are down by more almost 20% since August.

FINSUM: This selling pressure seems to be a combination of economic worry and fears about rising costs.

(Istanbul)

The big crash in oil has a lot of investors worried. Generally speaking, falling oil prices are seen as a bad sign, as they tend to forecast a weakening economy. However, this time around, there is a big beneficiary—emerging markets. The large majority of EMs are oil importers, which mean they benefit from weakening prices. Accordingly, countries like India and the Philippines are seeing benefits to their currencies, and likely, their economies. Indonesia and Turkey are also big oil importers.

FINSUM: This is more of a silver lining to a negative than a positive development in itself.

(New York)

Vanguard appears to be taking action on one it its biggest weaknesses. Others in the industry, notably Fidelity, have been making moves to try to make their funds ever more accessible and cheaper. Vanguard has been the low cost leader for years, but some of their features now make them look slightly outdated. Perhaps no longer. For its Admiral Shares class, its cheaper option, Vanguard has lowered the minimum investment from $10,000 to $3,000, a significantly lower threshold for younger and less wealthy investors. The changes will apply to 38 of their index mutual funds.

FINSUM: This is a good move but we are surprised they didn’t just change it to no minimums.

(New York)

Here is a big warning. Goldman Sachs says that with bonds and stocks falling, and the outlook remaining poor, cash will be king. The bank thinks that stocks will only rise by single digits in 2019. In the words of Goldman analysts, led by David Kostin, the chief of Goldman’s research arm, “We forecast S&P 500 will generate a modest single-digit absolute return in 2019. The risk-adjusted return will be less than half the long-term average. Cash will represent a competitive asset class to stocks for the first time in many years”.

FINSUM: Goldman basically think T-bills are a great buy right now and we have a hard time disagreeing. The yields on short-term holdings are very favorable and quite rate insensitive.