(New York)

The bond market has had a good year. For the last several months, yields have been falling and corporate bonds have seen big gains this year thanks to better earnings and ratings upgrades. Munis have been a big success too. But one area has been even hotter: ESG bonds, which have will see over $1 tn of issuance this year. To put that in perspective, it would be more than double what was issued in 2020. JP Morgan explained the big surge in ESG best, with their head of ESG debt capital markets saying “What began with ‘why should I issue?’ is now ‘why aren’t you? … your absence in the market says something now”.

FINSUM: ESG is fully mainstream now and seems to be gathering more and more assets/issuance. What will this do to issuance in clear non-ESG sectors?

(New York)

If advisors ever feel like hold their fates in the palms of their hands, they’d be right. At this very moment, a big change is looming for all brokers. In the near future, industry lawyers are expecting that SEC chief Gary Gensler will announce a definition of “best interest” within Reg BI. Previously, the thinking had been that defining the rule might actually make it easier to get around, but the emerging industry view is that defining it would indeed make the rule look much tougher.

FINSUM: A definition of “best interest” seems like a foregone conclusion to us at this point. The main question is when, and how restrictive is the verbiage.

(New York)

The bond market is in an odd place right now. For the first part of the year, yields jumped on the threat of inflation. Then in the middle of Spring, those fears started to wane and yields started to fall. Other than a quick reversal of direction off a hot June inflation reading, that has been the trend all summer. However, the whole market looks very vulnerable to a change in sentiment. If inflation comes in warm again for July—especially coupled with some very good jobs numbers—the overall economic picture might move back to bullish, which could swing yields rapidly back in the direction they were headed in Q1.

FINSUM: Essentially this market could quickly realized it mispriced the direction of the economy, so there is a lot of risk for advisors and their clients. Nasdaq and Fidelity are having an interesting webinar on how to plan for this risk. Check it out here.

(Washington)

When trying to discern the next steps for big regulations like Reg BI and the Fiduciary Rule, the best place to look is the revolving door between top industry law firms and US regulatory offices. And that revolving door is sending very scary messages for advisors. Take for instance these comments from Joshua Lichtenstein, an ERISA and benefits partner at Ropes & Gray LLP's ERISA fiduciary practice: "There are a lot of career people at the DOL still working there and it's not clear to me that their views would have necessarily changed just because of the 5th Circuit's action … So I am expecting to see a pretty fulsome rewrite of the definition of who is a fiduciary”.

FINSUM: The bottom line here is simple. A lot of the same people that wrote and pushed the Obama era fiduciary rule are still at the DOL and are once again empowered under Biden. Why would anything change from their 2017 effort?

(New York)

Munis have had a great year. Ever since Biden’s election, munis have surged in value because of two core assumptions. The first, and by far the biggest, is that taxes were likely to rise with Democrats in power. The second is that the Democrats would be more financially supportive of states and local governments. In the immortal words of Lee Corso, we’re here to say “not so fast!”. The assumption that taxes are going to rise looks weaker and weaker, and the same goes for the financial support for states.

FINSUM: The Democrats were not able to force through tax rises alongside this major infrastructure package, and their chances of getting any tax hikes through before the midterm elections looks poor.