FINSUM
Financial Advisors Expect Inverted Yield Curve to Continue Into 2023
According to the new InspereX 2023 Advisor Outlook Survey, 74% of financial advisors said they expect the inverted yield curve between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries to continue into the second quarter of 2023. This includes 40% who expect it to last beyond the third quarter. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term yields are higher than long-term yields. It is also often considered a signal for a recession. InspereX provides advisors, institutional investors, issuers, and risk managers deep access to fixed-income market data across asset classes. The survey was conducted between November 8th and 21st, 2022, among 270 financial advisors by Red Zone Marketing. The respondents represented advisors from independent and regional broker-dealers, banks, and RIAs. InspereX President David Rudd stated, “While many advisors are bullish on stocks in 2023 and optimistic about moderating inflation, their views on a continuation of the inverted Treasury yield curve indicate that the first half of the year could be bumpy.” However, advisors also believe that rising inflation is over, with 75% saying it has peaked. While many advisors say their clients are concerned about fixed-income volatility, they were not too scared to invest in fixed-income right now. In fact, the survey found that 68% of advisors are using individual bonds with their clients, mainly for income (56%) and diversification (23%).
Finsum:A recent survey revealed that advisors are concerned that the inverted yield will continue into next year, indicating the possibility of a recession.
Analysts Increasing Estimates for Energy Stocks
There’s no question that energy was the best-performing sector this year in what was a dismal year for equities. But how will the sector fare in 2023? If analyst expectations are correct, we could be in for another great year for energy stocks. According to FactSet data, analysts have increased estimates for only two sectors next year, energy and utilities. EPS estimates for energy stocks have seen a 4.4% rise in expectations, while utility stock estimates have risen 0.9%. This is in stark contrast to the other 9 sectors in the S&P 500, where analysts have been trimming their earnings per share forecasts for 2023, with downward revisions between September 30 and November 30. Due to these upward earnings expectations and relatively cheap valuations, energy stocks are poised to continue their rise next year, even as oil prices have pulled back from the year’s highs. Oil companies have been cautious despite the surge in oil prices earlier in the year. CIBC Private Wealth U.S. Sr. Energy Trader Rebecca Babin told Yahoo Finance Live that companies “are not making rash decisions about increasing production based on swings in oil prices. They are less levered. They are more disciplined, and they are super focused on returning to cash.” Plus, market strategists expect oil to move higher next year with China expected to reopen its economy after years of COVID closures.
Finsum:Energy stocks are expected to continue to move higher next year due to increased analyst estimates, relatively cheap valuations, and higher demand for oil by China.
Just ask Nielsen
You’ve heard of breakout seasons. Professional athletes have an affinity for them – especially as they’re about to become free agents.
Well, they just might want to scootch over. The FINRA 2022 Annual Conference session, “Regulation Best Interest: Lessons Learned” ranked as one of the most highly attended breakouts of the three-day conference, according to questce.com.
Someone; sign ‘em up.
Okay, then, in the world of putting Reg Bi into place, what was learned?
FINRA said it would soon review – and deeper – Reg Bi and Form CRS. In particular, they will put a magnifying glass on Care Obligation and the compliance among firms.
Meantime, some things don’t change.
Next year, Richard Best, head of the Division of Exams, Reg Bi and the Advisers Act fiduciary duty “remains a top priority” for Securities and Exchange Commission exams in an address to the SEC’s National Compliance Seminar, reported thinkadvisor.com.
Speaking to compliance officers, Best said: The exam division is “focused on how broker-dealers and investment advisors satisfy their obligations under the Reg BI and the Advisers Act fiduciary standard to act in the best interest of retail investors and not to place their own interests ahead of retail investors’ interest."
High five
Good things come in…..fives?
Fives, undoubtedly, would second that.
Heading into the year, the following, you’re on it, five trends, impacted the asset allocation decisions of financial advisors in the decision they reached pertaining to their moderate model portfolios, according to Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, stated natixisimsolutuons.com.
Working both in real time and from a historical point of view, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions portfolio consultants monitor asset classes, investment products and market action
In any event, those top trends include:
- Enthusiasm for Growth Stocks Is Fading. Moderate risk portfolios continued to reduce the …
- Fixed Income Duration and Credit Quality Decreased. Over the course of 2021, duration in the …
- Preference for Bank Loans Over High Yield Bonds. One of the more interesting trends in fixed …
- Allocation to Inflation Protection Assets Starting to Rise. In 2021, as rising headline inflation …
- Allocations to Alternative Investments Resumed Upward Trend
On another note, with the idea of tapping them as building blocks, ETFs are leveraged by model portfolios to oversee various investment companies, according to alphaprofit.com.
iShares, SPDR, and Vanguard ETFs as well as ETFs provided by Invesco PowerShares, Market Vectors, WisdomTree and other investment companies and among the ETF universe.
Piling on liberally
Those darn liberals seem to burning energy on something again – at least according to the Republican staff of the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, stated mondaq.com.
The recently released report, entitled "The New Emperors: Responding to the Growing Influence of the Big Three Asset Managers," delved into the nuts and bolts of their concerns; namely that large asset managers are leveraging their proxy voting power in the name of "liberal social goals." They’re described in the report as more broadly including diversity and inclusion and ESG considerations.
Claims lodged by the report: the application of power, in the form of significant voting influence on corporate policy rather than making the most of getting the most of investor profits by the “Big Three,” BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard.
A regulation entitled “Prudence and Loyalty in Selecting Plan Investments and Exercising Shareholder Rights” (the “Final Rule”), was published by the U.S. Department of Labor, according to usbenefits.law.
The Final Rule didn’t leave much to the imagination. Numerous times. the DOL, stressed the regulation was focused mainly on extracting and fixing the impact of ESG investing by plan fiduciaries.