(New York)

Investors beware, the strongest predictor of recession has just rung its bell. An inverted yield curve has predicted all six of the US recessions going back 60 years. And while all of investors’ focus has been on whether the Treasury yield curve will invert, the global yield curve already has. The yield on the ICE Bank of America index of government bonds due in 7 to 10 years has already inverted, with such yields being lower than for 1 to 3 year bonds. While the US economy is currently looking strong, there is growing weakness in Europe, China, and emerging markets, which seems to have inverted the curve. The IMF says the clouds over the world’s economy are “getting darker by the day”.

FINSUM: It is seeming more and more like we will have a global recession. Though, the US seems like it will be the last to succumb to it. One thing to remember—in the US it takes an average of 18.5 months from when the curve inverts to when we reach the peak of the growth cycle.