Displaying items by tag: private credit

UBS strategists have warned that the artificial intelligence boom, fueled heavily by private credit firms and lenders, is raising the risk of overheating in the sector. Private credit, once focused on smaller businesses, has expanded rapidly into big tech, with tech-sector debt from non-bank lenders surging nearly 29%—or $100 billion—in the past year. 

The warning echoes concerns from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who recently cautioned that excitement around AI may be inflating a bubble. UBS noted that while this influx of capital could support hyperscaler growth plans, it may also create vulnerabilities if assets sour or growth slows. 

Tech giants including Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are projected to spend $344 billion in 2025, much of it on AI-driven infrastructure such as data centers. 

Finsum: With private credit now deeply embedded in the sector, analysts caution that investors should carefully monitor risks alongside the sector’s breakneck growth.

Private credit has grown so large and intertwined with banks and insurers that it now poses a systemic risk in future financial crises, according to a new Moody’s Analytics study co-authored by economists and regulators. 

The report warns that the opaque nature of private credit and its deepening ties to traditional finance could amplify financial shocks due to increased interconnectedness. Since the 2008 crisis, banks have reduced lending amid tighter regulations, creating room for private credit funds—often lending to riskier, heavily indebted companies—to flourish with less oversight. 

Researchers used business development companies as a proxy for the sector and found their market behavior is now more correlated with broader financial stress than in the past. Although private credit firms argue they are less prone to panics due to their long-term investor base, banks are still deeply exposed through indirect relationships like fund financing and risk transfers. 

Finsum: While private markets tend to be insulated from recessions compared to their public counter parts it’s important to keep this risk in mind when investing

With U.S. GDP dipping negative in Q1 and tariffs clouding the policy outlook, concerns are mounting over how resilient the American consumer truly is. Rising credit card delinquencies point to financial strain, especially among lower-income, lower-FICO borrowers, while looser post-pandemic underwriting standards and inflation have only added pressure. 

In contrast, higher-income consumers—especially homeowners—have largely weathered the storm, thanks in part to low fixed-rate mortgages and tighter lending practices in recent years. 

This divergence is pushing savvy investors to focus on more defensive segments like asset-backed residential credit and small business loans with strong underwriting. While these may offer slightly lower yields, they come with greater resilience and the potential for long-term stability amid an increasingly bifurcated market. 

Finsum: As credit performance grows more uneven, navigating this environment requires a sharper eye on borrower quality and a flexible, informed investment approach.

Empower, the $1.8 trillion 401(k) plan provider, will begin offering private credit, equity, and real estate investments in some retirement accounts later this year through partnerships with firms like Apollo and Partners Group. 

This move marks the largest entry yet of private assets into 401(k)-type plans, a $12.4 trillion market that Wall Street firms have long sought access to. While proponents argue private assets can enhance returns and reduce volatility, challenges remain—such as illiquidity, valuation complexity, and higher fees, which range from 1% to 1.6% versus the 0.28% average for typical target-date funds. 

Only select managed account services will offer these investments, with five employers already signed up to participate in the initial rollout. Allocations could range from 5% to 20% of a portfolio, depending on factors like age and risk tolerance.

Finsum: Private markets have definitely gone wide in the last decade but this sort of expansion could really help retirees. 

Private credit managers often tout their locked-up capital as a key strength, insulating them from the kind of liquidity runs that plagued banks like Silicon Valley Bank. However, the rise of evergreen vehicles—funds allowing periodic redemptions—has introduced new vulnerabilities, especially as firms like Blackstone and Apollo have raised nearly $300 billion from retail investors. 

While evergreen funds offer some liquidity and mass appeal, especially through wealth advisors, their structure forces managers to continuously invest and meet redemptions, reducing the strategic flexibility that once defined private credit’s advantage. 

This could erode returns, particularly if managers are pressured to lend during inopportune times or sell illiquid assets at discounts to meet withdrawals. Though redemptions are capped and many investments naturally mature over time, a crisis could still lead to redemption surges that slow new lending and strain fund performance. 

Finsum: As evergreens attract less experienced investors and chase more capital, the sector risks undermining its own resilience unless managers remain disciplined and transparent.