(New York)

Don’t let the cooling of the trade war between the US and China fool you, the markets are not in a good position, at least that is the position of Bank of America. The bank thinks there won’t be a deal between Washington and Beijing until the US market feels real pain. They think the looming Q3 correction will be the stimulus that gets a deal done because Trump operates under a “no pain, no deal” paradigm. “The markets are likely to view the summit as a modest positive in the short run. But stepping back, we see several reasons for concern”, says Bank of America.

FINSUM: The “no pain, no deal” concept makes a lot of sense to us. The bigger question, though, is what would cause the pain because markets certainly aren’t hurting from the threat of a trade war. Maybe a big earnings miss? (See below)

(New York)

Earnings recessions don’t always hurt that much, but they don’t help. Just look at the 2015-2016 period, when earnings didn’t perform well. Markets didn’t lose much, but they were mostly flat. Now we are re-entering that paradigm, as many companies are cutting earnings and it looks like the first earnings recession in three years is coming. Earnings are very likely to fall in the second quarter, with average analyst estimates calling for a nearly 3% decline across the board. So far, 20 of the S&P 500’s companies have reported and the average earnings fall has been 15%.

FINSUM: A bigger than expected decline in earnings could seriously change the risk-reward outlook of markets. This seems like an important risk right now.

(New York)

A year ago, the FAANGs were flying high. In the previous twelve months they had risen 52% against the market’s 13% growth. The group of tech stocks has since suffered, underperforming the S&P 500 in the last year. In fact, a group of very conservative stocks have been leading the way. Call them the “WPPCK” (not as catchy, we know), which is comprised of Walmart, Procter & Gamble, Pepsico, Costco, and Coca-Cola. This group has risen 27.1% in the last year versus the S&P 500’s 7.2% gain and the FAANGs’ 5.7%.

FINSUM: It is hard to imagine a less flashy group of stocks than these, but they have been strong and steady, which seems like a good formula for this unpredictable market.

(Washington)

It is no secret that Trump is a critic of the current Federal Reserve. He has frequently complained about Powell and wishes the Fed would take a more dovish stance. Well, he took a step towards making that dovish position a reality this week as he has just appointed two notable doves to the Fed. One is Judy Shelton, an economic adviser to his 2016 campaign, who will now be on the Fed’s board. The other is Christopher Waller, who will be the head of research at the St. Louis Fed. Shelton has numerous times expressed extremely dovish views and has said she does not like the Fed’s way of setting rates and would instead prefer a market-set rate.

FINSUM: Shelton’s views are pretty revolutionary, so it seems like she could really shake things up.

(New York)

If you are feeling some relief because of the “trade truce” between the US and China, don’t. At least that is what Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are saying. Morgan Stanley explains that the current rally is very reminiscent of what happened last November, just before the market imploded and had the worst December on record. At that time, the US and China had another truce which sent markets rallying. However, bigger tensions loomed larger and set the market up for a historic fall. One of the big issues was that the seeming ”truce” stopped inventory managers from purchasing because there was no more incentive to stockpile.

FINSUM: The most interesting view here is the idea that the markets are trapped between the “Powell Put” and the “Trump Call”. That is the concept that every time markets are doing well, Trump will try to drive a harder bargain with China, and if the market falls, Powell will cut rates. In this way, markets could be trapped in a banded range.