(New York)

Goldman Sachs is making their position clear. The bank thinks that after all the volatility we have seen, the worst is behind us and stocks have already hit bottom. Goldman says that because of the Fed’s “do whatever it takes” attitude, it is unlikely the market will fall further. “The Fed and Congress have precluded the prospect of a complete economic collapse … These policy actions mean our previous near-term downside of 2,000 is no longer likely” for the S&P 500 Index, according to the bank’s strategists.

FINSUM: We are of two minds on this. On the one hand, Goldman makes a good point about the Fed propping up markets. On the other, there is a liquidity-induced real estate crisis brewing and the true ramifications of this downturn (including its expression in S&P 500 earnings) will not be felt for a few months.

(New York)

For many advisors, the idea of changing firms in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic might be the furthest thing from their minds. But the reality is that for many, this could be an ideal time to switch (or even a necessity) for a number of reasons. Firstly, many advisors feel under-supported by their firms during crises (of which this one is unprecedented), which may motivate them to switch associations. But additionally, because of the volatile to the market, recent valuations/production numbers might mean moving soon makes the most sense, as it will maximize the size of moving checks one can receive.

FINSUM: A lot of advisors seem to be worried about maintaining their employees and payroll given the big fall in fees.

COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep leaders accountable for the promises they made about the PPP program.

PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE 60-second FORM

We have received an absolute torrent of attention today. Website traffic has jumped 50x since Friday and we are currently getting 6 complete surveys per minute. As of 2:30 PM we have about 5,000 businesses reporting around $2.5 bn PPP loan applications across all 50 states.

The overall picture is improving slowly, with 2.7% of companies saying they have received a PPP loan disbursement (i.e. actually deposited).

Data from Successful Applicants:
• Percentage of companies successfully receiving a PPP loan: 2.7%
• Average days from application to receipt: 5.9 days
• Median PPP loan size: $153,000
• Median employees: 18

Trends:
• The average timeline of a successful application is rising (as would be expected as time ticks on).
• The median loan size has shot up considerably, almost doubling to $153k since the last update.

Takeaways:

Overall, PPP loans are being paid, but the vast majority of applicants are still in the dark on their applications. Also, larger companies with larger payrolls and more employees seem to be getting receiving more of the early money. That said, there is a significant minority of smaller businesses receiving it too. Keep up the hope!

Please Help us Keep the Data Flowing by Sharing This!

COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep leaders accountable for the promises they made about the PPP program.

PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE 60-second FORM

Applications are flooding in this morning—several per minute—and we have compiled the data to-date. As of 8 am, over 3,000 companies have reported on their PPP loans, with $1.5 bn in loan applications across all 50 states.

The Data:

• 2.4% of businesses report receiving PPP loan disbursements
• 91% got the full amount they applied for
• $84,000 is the median PPP loan received
• 84% of PPP Loans disbursed came through small/regional banks
• 10% of PPP Loans disbursed came through JP Morgan Chase

Trends:

• Small and regional banks are the backbone of the PPP loan disbursement, reportedly because they were already well established to process SBA loans, so had the best infrastructure
• JP Morgan deserves some thanks, as it is the first big bank to really open the PPP loan spigot
• Wells Fargo and Bank America appear to finally be issuing loans
• Most successful applicants are getting the full amount they applied for
• With applications being fully funded, the money is likely to run out sooner

PLEASE KEEP SPREADING THE WORD SO WE CAN KEEP THE DATA FLOWING

COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.

PLEASE HELP US HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM

As of 7am on April 13th, we have had around 3,000 companies report on their PPP loan applications from all 50 states, comprising about $1.5 bn of loan requests.

While the numbers are small so far—about 40 companies say they have received PPP loans—the early indications are positive in an important way: most are getting the full amount they applied for. So far, 91% of companies say they have received the entirety of what they applied for. Of those who did not receive the whole amount, only one received more than a 15% reduction from the amount they applied for (e.g. receiving $85,000 on a $100,000 application).

So what is the implication of that data? Firstly, it seems to mean that banks and the SBA are not arbitrarily reducing loans to spread the money around more evenly to a larger group of companies. On the one hand this is good news, but on the other it has a serous ramification: the money is likely to run out quickly and many companies may get nothing once the funds run dry.

PLEASE FILL OUT THE COVID LOAN TRACKER SURVEY SO WE CAN KEEP THE DATA COMING!