Congress has put forth a new bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, which will put lots of measures in place in order to limit inflation. Manchin (West Virginia D.) finally came to an agreement with Check Schumer in order to move forward. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s, said that this will move both the economy and inflation toward the long-term goals. The bill will primarily be paid for with higher corporate and income tax rates on the wealthy and will fund lower drug costs, clean energy projects, and debt reduction. Others say the tax ‘hikes’ are really just loopholes being closed, and this is just a mini Build Back Better Bill. Moody’s expects the impact on inflation to be modest at best tapering inflation by only a third of a percentage point by 2031 and boosting growth by 0.2% in the same time period. The act hasn’t been put forth into law, but it could be close with Manchin.

Finsum: A coordinated monetary/fiscal effort will be needed to cure inflation without a recession, but these reductions aren’t nearly enough.

Fixed-income investors are looking for an out of rising yields and lower bond prices, and junk bonds might be the place for income investors to find relief. According to BlackRock, the underlying credit risk is much lower than the market is assuming, because high-yield issuers actually have strong stable balance sheets. BR and KKKR & Co. Inc. are purchasing more junk bonds and similar market segments given their relative value. While they do expect market conditions to tighten they do not anticipate an unusually high default rate. Investors should be weary of additional volatility that could be induced by macro factors moving forward.

Finsum: If a bond market crisis hits high yield debt due to a full-blown recession, the Fed would most likely roll back the tightening currently taking place. 

Volatility has spiked in 2022 in response to rising rates and international turmoil, but that could be good news for financial advisors according to Cerulli. The latest Edge publication demonstrated that Advisors are being leaned on to deliver critical advice in response to high inflation, economic sluggishness, and deteriorating equity prices. For existing clients, they advise advisors to concentrate on tax loss harvesting and long-term planning. Advisor’s who capitalize on providing these while rebalancing risk in portfolios are putting their clients in the best position to hit a rally coming out of the turmoil. Advisors should lean into their attributes during high volatility.

Finsum: Research shows financial advisors provide critical value when it comes to relating to clients and helping them understand economic circumstances, volatility can provide a chance to capitalize.

Firms are buying up custom indexing solutions rapidly as possible in order to meet the excess demand coming from consumers, but also to prepare for the future. Investment experts and advisors believe there is a strong possibility that custom indexing will shake up the investment products space, the way ETFs redefined the early oughts. Olive Wyman expects custom solutions will capture $1.5 trillion of assets by 2025,  over a 300% growth from the 2020 levels. Custom solutions are more flexible to address clients' desires, and they can be implemented to cater to ESG criteria more stringently than ETFs. However, the greatest advantage is their tax efficiency where stocks can be dropped for tax loss harvesting.

Finsum: Direct indexing has benefited from the rapid growth in fintech solutions, which have lowered minimums across the board. 

According to the Index Industry Association’s annual ESG survey, 76% of respondents integrate ESG when running both passive and active fixed income mandates. This is a large jump from 42% in 2021. The survey, which was conducted with 300 asset managers, also found that 87% of passive asset managers are integrating ESG into their bond allocations. 85% of asset managers stated that ESG had become a higher priority over the past 12 months. Out of this figure, 43% said the concern around climate and corporate governance was the driving force behind that decision. Other reasons were a need for more diversified returns, regulatory and reputation risk, high energy prices, and geopolitical events. Almost a third cited a desire for increased returns. The biggest driver was their client’s knowledge of ESG, with 53% stating they were “very confident” in their clients' ESG knowledge.

Finsum: Asset managers are implementing ESG into fixed income allocations at a higher rate due to climate and corporate governance, diversified returns, higher energy prices, and client knowledge.