Eq: Large Cap
(New York)
The financial media and the research side of Wall Street both seem to have completely succumbed to bearishness over the last couple months. Alongside rising rates, inflation, and yields, as well as some signals about the potential end of the cycle, commentary has become decidedly negative. However, the CIO of Evercore Asset Management has just put out a contrary opinion, arguing that stocks are not overvalued and could return 7% for the next ten years. The crux of his thinking is that P/E ratios are not a good metric of valuation. Rather we should be looking at real earnings yield, which is yields minus inflation. By this metric, stocks are only at average valuations.
FINSUM: Basically this approach tries to take account of the fact that we are in a low-yield, low-inflation environment, and it does make some sense.
(New York)
If you are looking for great stock yields from reputable names, look no further than preferreds. While the stocks are facing headwinds from rate rises, check this out: KKR, leading private equity firm, has been issuing preferred securities with 6.5% yields that have to pay out to holders before they do to common shareholders. This is not an isolated case, the average yield of investment grade preferred shares is 5.8%. This is contrasted to 4% for corporate bonds and 4.4% for municipals.
FINSUM: Preferreds are an old but niche asset class. They are safer than common stock, but less secure than bonds. Interesting to take a look at as they could fill a nice niche in many portfolios.
(New York)
If one thing is clear about markets right now, it is that they have no direction. Volatility has been very high, but not in any one direction, as prices have been bouncing around as if they were inside a pinball machine. In this vein, Barron’s makes the argument that markets may keep simply moving sideways, possibly through 2027. The article summarizes the view this way, saying “With the Fed continuing to raise rates, populism still threatening Wall Street, and baby boomers ditching stocks as they retire, the market could be stuck in a rut until the end of 2027”.
FINSUM: Nine years is a long time to move sideways! In the nearer term stocks may struggle as we are in a mid-term election year. In such times, they tend to do well in the fourth quarter.
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(New York)
Markets have been very turbulent lately with no clear path forward. With that in mind, and given the stage of life (retirement) of many clients, a lot of advisors may be looking for some good yields to add to portfolios. Well, it might be good to take a look at utilities stocks. While the focus on investors has been on growth, utilities look good at the moment. Despite the fact that utilities generally lose ground when rates rise, and have lost 2.4% this year, well-run regulated utilities still look like a good buy. In particular, look for utilities that do not have massive amounts of capital tied up in a single asset, like a power plant. This means one should focus on utilities in the electricity transmission and distribution areas.
FINSUM: Beyond the yields, utilities would also seem to be quite good at defending against a downturn, as spending on them would be quite resilient in a recession.
(New York)
Is value dead? That question has been asked for years now as value stock have chronically underperformed their growth oriented peers. Even now investors look first and foremost to technology (especially FAANG) stocks, prioritizing the richly valued, but quickly growing companies. However, value may be ready to turn around, says Barron’s. One of the big reasons why is that loose monetary conditions, which have held value stocks back, are finally tightening. Some even think value might really soar, as it is exceedingly rare for strong value stocks to be trading at such low P/E ratios this late in a bull market.
FINSUM: We think the biggest problem facing value stocks has been that everyone senses technology is coming to dominate all aspects of life, the economy included. This has meant that investing in tech companies is seen as the way of the future, and that one is foolish not to. It is going to take time, and maybe some cataclysm (e.g. a big regulatory crack down on tech) to disabuse them of that notion.
(New York)
Talk about a mega merger. In a deal with huge regulatory implications, T-Mobile announced an acquisition of Sprint for $26.5 bn. The deal would be all stock, and is a bet that the 3rd and 4th largest mobile providers in the US can team up to create a rival to the leading players, AT&T and Verizon. The two companies, which are owned by Deutsche Telekom and SoftGroup, respectively, tried to merge 5 months ago, but the deal collapsed.
FINSUM: This is a big play to capture the next generation of data, or 5G, which is being heralded as a sort of holy grail for mobile providers.