Eq: Large Cap
(New York)
Want to know one of the biggest risks in equity markets right now—parity, and we don’t mean between asset classes, we mean between investors’ portfolios. Momentum buying, or buying up stocks that have performed the best, has become such a hot strategy this year that both mutual fund holdings and hedge fund holdings look very similar. Everyone has the same basket of stocks, such as Mastercard, Paypal, Amazon, and Microsoft.
FINSUM: Since value investing has all but died—no one is interested in undervalued stocks—portfolio parity is increasing. This seems like a big risk that will magnify a reversal.
(New York)
High yield companies have been big beneficiaries of the tumble in yields this year. But not in the way one thinks, not in the form of a big rally. Instead, highly indebted borrowers have been using the tumble in yields as a way to refinance their debt and lengthen out maturities. The practice has been very widespread. According to one portfolio manager, “It’s a recipe for disaster in the longer term … As an investor, it means you are lending to fairly risky companies at fairly low rates at the end of the cycle. It might not be three months from now or six months from now, but at some point these bonds are going to be pretty challenged”.
FINSUM: Kick the can down the road for as long as you can. That has been the mantra of junk bond markets since the Crisis. When will the musical chairs stop?
(New York)
It has been forecasted for some time, but now it is finally happening—US banks are hiking dividends. After getting the all clear from regulators after successful stress tests, US banks are beginning to hike their dividends. For instance, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup hiked their dividends by 13%+ recently, with both now yielding 2.5% or over. Bank stocks have been beat up over the last year, with Morgan Stanley down 10%, for instance.
FINSUM: On the one hand, bank stocks looked undervalued and now have attractive yields. On the other, if you think we are headed towards a slowdown, then it is not a good time to buy financial shares.
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(New York)
One of the oldest form of analysis of the Dow is sending a pretty grave signal at the moment. The Dow Theory, which has been around for more than a century, contend that if the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the Dow Jones Transportation Average reaches a new high, the other must follow quickly in order to confirm a bullish outlook. Well, despite the core index’s gain, the Transportation Average has been lagging badly, sliding 3.59% in a single day last week.
FINSUM: Okay a couple thoughts here. The first is that the structure of the economy is different now, such that the relationship between growth and Transportation is not the same as it has been over the last century. Outside that though, logistics tends to expand at multiples of underlying growth, so this still feels worrisome.
(New York)
Are you looking for a good dividend stock? Well, we have one for you. How about a stock that has risen 27% this year yet still has a 4% dividend yield and a very solid business? If that sounds good, take a look at Prudential Financial. The company is an asset manager and insurance provider, and has solid growth and financials and seeks to be financially prudent. “We believe in a very consistent and regular dividend that will be aligned with our earnings growth, says the CFO. The company has expected earnings growth of 8% this year.
FINSUM: Prudential is a pretty sleepy name, but there is nothing boring about a 4% dividend combined with earnings growth and market-beating price appreciation.
(Frankfurt)
American investors seem almost conditioned to ignore the rest of the world. Over the last decade that has been a pretty good plan as the US recovery and markets have had a Teflon coating that resisted global downturns. However, rates market in Europe is sending some grave warning signals. Try this on for size: several European junk bonds are now trading at negative yields. Yes, you read that correctly, investors are paying for the privilege of holding junk in Europe.
FINSUM: This is not some ultra-safe Germany sovereign bond that has negative yields. We are talking run-of-the-mill EU junk bonds having negative yields. That is a big warning sign.