When it comes to recruiting deals, there is much to analyze and understand beyond the upfront figure. In fact, how the deal is structured can be even more important in the long term, as this will dictate longer-term outcomes like growth, portability, succession planning, and compensation. 

Typically, the upfront payment is calculated based on 125 to 175% of trailing 12-month production. This portion is guaranteed and taxed at lower rates, so it’s understandable why so much attention is paid to this figure.

Many firms still offer back-end bonuses, which are generally around 25 to 50% of trailing 12-month production, although these are being phased out. These bonuses are only paid out if advisors successfully transition and achieve pre-defined metrics. Unvested deferred compensation replacement is another element becoming less common as this is increasingly folded into the overall package. However, this represents the amount that an advisor would lose out on by switching firms.

Finally, many deals will also include a ‘sunset program’ so that a retiring advisor can cash out of the business at market value. With this, there are many factors to consider, such as terms, requirements, and financing. For younger advisors, this might be less relevant, but it could be a deciding factor for those closer to the end of their careers. 

Finsum: There are many components of a recruiting deal that go beyond the headline amount. In fact, the structure of a deal can be more important when it comes to making the right choice.

According to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, there is only a 25% chance that the SEC approves a spot ethereum ETF. He points to the lack of SEC engagement on the topic and the absence of any positive signs or chatter on the subject, which is a departure from the lead-up to bitcoin’s approval. Balchunas believes this lack of engagement is ‘tactical’ rather than ‘procrastination’. 

The crux of the issue is how ethereum should be classified. There are indications that the SEC is leaning towards treating it like a security based on subpoenas to crypto companies that have interacted with the Ethereum Foundation. 

However, there are some dissenting voices who are more optimistic about approval. Craig Salm, Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer, says the SEC’s reticence is due to most issues already being cleared up during the bitcoin ETF approval process. He believes both ETFs are nearly identical, except for the underlying asset. He also pointed to the approval of an ethereum futures ETF and its classification as a commodity future as a favorable sign. 

Currently, several asset managers have filed for approval for an ethereum ETF, including Blackrock, VanEck, ARK 21Shares, Fidelity, Invesco Galaxy, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Hashdex. The most immediate deadline is May 23 for VanEck.

Finsum: Over the next couple of months, the SEC will decide on an ethereum ETF. Reading the tea leaves, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas is not optimistic that it will be approved. 

Oil prices have continued to defy Wall Street analysts. Last year, the consensus view was that prices would weaken as the US economy slipped into a recession, with the rest of the world facing a sharper contraction in economic growth. While growth did slow, the US economy continued to expand, and global oil demand increased more than expected. In Q1, the IEA upped its forecast for US oil demand by 110,000 barrels per day due to stronger than expected economic data. 

Additionally, despite predictions from EV boosters, there has been no material impact on oil demand from increased adoption. Similarly, China’s economy has been mired in a slump, yet Chinese oil demand also defied expectations and increased more than expected. In fact, a major lesson of the post-pandemic period is the inelasticity of oil demand. 

On the supply side, US production also surpassed forecasts and made up for any production cuts from OPEC. A major factor is increasing well productivity due to newer drilling techniques. 

Looking ahead, many were skeptical that OPEC+ would remain disciplined, given individual countries’ incentives to increase revenues by boosting production. So far, the cartel has managed to successfully reduce production, which is contributing to the current tight market and a major factor in oil’s upward move YTD. 

Finsum: Last year, many analysts got it wrong when it came to oil. Overall, they were too bearish on the economy and overestimated how much a weak economy would impact oil demand. 

Annuity sales in 2023 were up 22% compared to the previous year, reaching $355.4 billion. The biggest contributor to this growth was the independent sales channel, which now accounts for 40.6% of all annuities sold, totaling $156.2 billion. In 2022, independent agents and brokers accounted for 38.7% of sales. They also accounted for 74% of all fixed indexed annuity sales.

The growth in total annuity sales is due to rising interest rates and the large number of Baby Boomers who are entering or nearing retirement. In terms of categories, income annuities saw the largest increase in sales, at 45% for single premium immediate annuities and a 97% increase for deferred income annuities. 

While most categories saw growth, traditional variable annuities were an exception, as sales dropped by 17%. In contrast, registered index-linked annuities displaced some of these sales as the category had a 15% jump in sales. These annuities offer investors downside protection and limited upside and total $47.4 billion in sales in 2023. 

Keith Golembiewski, the head of annuity research at LIMRA, believes that RIAs are a source of future growth for variable annuity sales. These annuities offer upside potential and allow for deferral of taxes, making them ideal for older clients. Currently, RIAs are a small but growing source of annuity sales. 

Finsum: Annuity sales hit new record highs in 2023. Some major reasons are an uncertain economic outlook, Baby Boomers nearing retirement, and high interest rates. 

Robert Mitchnick, Blackrock’s digital asset lead, believes that bitcoin is more like ‘digital gold’ rather than a ‘risk-on’ asset, despite its strong correlation to equities in recent years. Throughout bitcoin’s existence, there has been a constant debate about its true nature. Some argue that bitcoin is like gold given that there is a fixed supply, which means that it should provide protection against inflation. 

While this may be true in theory, in reality, bitcoin has largely moved in the same direction as equities, which undermines the argument that it offers diversification. In 2022, bitcoin tumbled as the world dealt with the highest levels of inflation in decades. Notably, equities were also down 25% in 2022. In the following year, as equity markets made new highs, bitcoin also followed and made new highs as well. 

Despite this relationship, Mitchnik believes that historically, bitcoin has demonstrated very little correlation to stocks. He attributes the recent rally to excitement around the launch of bitcoin ETFs in the US. In terms of allocation, he recommends between 1 and 3% for investors to provide diversification and differentiated returns. The argument about bitcoin’s nature is germane for investors who want to understand whether it will make their portfolio more risky or more diversified. 

Finsum: There are two camps when it comes to bitcoin. One sees bitcoin as an asset that is closely correlated to equities; while the other believes that bitcoin is more like gold and can help diversify portfolios.