(New York)

New US GDP data has been released and it is not good news. Though, it is isn’t exactly terrible either. US third quarter growth was 1.9%, the lowest level of 2019. The fall in pace was caused by a reduction in business investment. The pace of growth was 2.0% in the second quarter. The 1.9% rate actually exceeded estimates of 1.6% despite still being the weakest result of the year.

FINSUM: So the big question here is how the Fed will react to this news. They have generally had a glass-half-full approach, so this may keep them from proceeding with cuts, but we’d bet they undertake one more “insurance” cut.

(New York)

The market just hit fresh highs and we are making progress on the trade war; everything is good right? Wrong, says UBS. The bank has just put out an unusually bold warning, saying markets are likely headed for a big decline. Why? Earnings. Earnings growth forecasts for 2020 have tumbled from a peak of 23% to the just 1% now, a huge fall in expectations. That all comes as the growth backdrop for the economy is weakening, and signals that valuation multiples are likely to contract. “Every bear market of the past 50 years has witnessed an actual decline in S&P 500 forward earnings … Ultimately, the most vulnerable macro backdrop for equities occurs when forward earnings growth turns negative as LEIs are trending downward (pushing [price-to-earnings] lower)” says UBS.

FINSUM: An earnings bear market can easily turn into a real bear market, though it doesn’t always happen.

(New York)

Raymond James just reported earnings and alongside its figures, it also released its latest advisor numbers, and they were eye-popping. The firm has grown its advisor head count to over 8,000, up 198 since last September. Raymond James’ recent recruiting success seems to come down to two factors: big recruiting loans, and the fact that with Raymond James, advisors own the client. According to Raymond James CEO Paul Reilly, “I can’t remember seeing so many $5 million to $10 million [advisors] in the pipeline”.

FINSUM: Big recruiting payouts and letting advisors own the client is a pretty compelling (if expensive) way to recruit.

(London)

After three and a half years of chaos, it is finally going to happen—the British people are going to get a chance to vote on Brexit. No, it will not be in the form of a second referendum, but rather in the form of a general election. After fighting the option for months, the Labour party has been forced to give in to a general election that will pit Boris Johnson against Jeremy Corbyn, and likely decide the future of Brexit. No date has yet been set for the election, but it looks very likely to be in early December.

FINSUM: The trick of this election is that Brexit is probably going to happen no matter who wins because even top Labour leaders actually want the UK to leave.