
FINSUM
JPMorgan Bullish on Value and Growth Stocks
Growth and value don’t typically have strong co-movement with one and other unless its a total market rally, however JPMorgan’s Kolanovic is telling investors that forking central banks, rising commodities, and stock sell off are the catalyst for the bulls to move on value and growth. He told investors to construct a barbell portfolio with bio-tech tech and innovation pulling growth and metals and mining leading the way for value. Its the perfect swarm of macro factors that can elevate these markets. International growth stock have fallen so far they are beginning to show P/E ratios that look like value stocks and should intrigue investors. JPMorgan says the war in Ukraine could persist which will continue to elevate commodities.
Finsum: This is a great time for traditional energy, particularly for bond investors stuck in the cold.
Natural Gas Surges to Over Decade High
Oil has been dominating headlines but natural gas prices skyrocketed to a t 13 year high on the back of Russia’s war on Ukraine. To add to the fodder temperature forecasts for spring are remarkably low which means homes will be utilizing more natural gas in order heat homes. Overall prices are $8.05 per million British thermal units and are up 108% through the year already. Financial markets aren’t sure this price increase is permanent and Citi has only raised their end price target to $4.60 by the end of 2022.
Finsum: Keep an eye on natural gas bonds as just like oil surging, it could mean good things for companies ability to repay.
Time to Harvest those Fixed Income Losses
It's never too early to begin thinking about tax-loss harvesting and there is a ripe situation in the bond market. The yield curve has been on the rise due to Fed tightening and inflation. Rising yields mean lower bond prices and ETF owners have taken a bath. Selling off those funds right now could give you a tax advantage later this year. However, investors should get out of the fixed income route altogether. Markets are beginning to show signs of a recession or straight volatility so replacing your bond ETF with another fixed-income ETF could help in the case of a recession. Or if bond prices begin to take off it's a good option to have some skin in the game.
Finsum: The wash rule makes harvesting losses in equity markets a bit difficult, but the plethora of bond funds and options gives investors better ability to harvest losses now.
Facing the Inevitable? A Commodity Squeeze in Oil
Recent events have dramatically shifted the balance of supply and demand within the oil market, driving prices higher. Will this trend continue?
Find out more.
Bonds See Worst Month Since Financial Crisis
The bond market has taken a beating and investment-grade debt has been anything but a safe haven for income investors. This has been one of the third-worst stretches in history as the YTD returns have been -10.5% which is only bested by the Lehman collapse in late 2008 where returns crept to -14.3% and Volcker’s days of battling high inflation and hiking rates. Investors are selling off investment-grade debt as the risk-free rates on Treasuries are climbing as the Fed’s tightening cycle is beginning. These rising yields are all corporate bond ETFs and driving returns down, but things could get worse as rates will only continue to rise and inflation is only beginning.
Finsum: Income investors need to look to active funds or abroad if they want relief in the bond market.