Last month, Innovator launched the Innovator Nasdaq 100 Managed Floor ETF (QFLR). The ETF is designed to offer investors exposure to the performance of the Nasdaq 100 while capping losses at 10% over a 12-month period with an expense ratio of 0.89%.

Innovator achieves this by using a laddered put option strategy managed by Parametric, a Morgan Stanley affiliate, in concert with investing in the securities held by the Nasdaq 100. With these put options, the fund hedges against downside risk while reducing volatility in exchange for upside performance. 

According to Graham Day, Chief Investment Officer at Innovator, “Historically, in positive years, the Nasdaq-100 has averaged returns of 29%, but in negative years it has averaged losses of -30%. Most investors are unable to stomach this type of volatility, and QFLR is a solution to allow investors to remain fully invested in the Nasdaq-100 with built-in risk management.” 

2022 and 2023 illustrate the value of QFLR as double-digit losses in the Nasdaq led many investors to reduce equity exposure and miss out on the big rally in the following year. Previously, Innovator launched the Innovator Equity Managed Floor ETF, which has $132 million in assets. The fund tracks an index of large-cap US stocks and limits losses to 10%. According to Innovator, it essentially captures about 80% of upside while limiting volatility to 70%. In the press release for QFLR, SFLR investors saw about 80% of the equity portfolio’s upside but only 70% of the volatility.

Finsum: The private credit market has boomed over the last couple of years due to anemic public markets and hesitant banks. Now, banks are once again competing for business and offering more favorable terms.

As interest rates remain higher for longer, borrowers are increasingly turning to an alternative source of funding: private credit. These arrangements benefit both sides of the transaction; lenders receive higher returns than traditional loans, and their clients get a source of financing with the flexibility to meet their unique needs.

With alternative asset managers packaging their private credit investments to accommodate smaller account sizes, this asset class is showing up more in investors' portfolios.

This product proliferation gives investors key advantages that are hard to find elsewhere. Private credit typically has a low correlation to stocks and bonds, which are often the mainstay of an investor's portfolio. It also provides an opportunity for higher returns than more traditional debt instruments.

Private credit's advantages, diversification and higher returns, come at a cost. These funds can be less liquid than traditional investments, and the return, as with most investments, is not guaranteed.

However, private credit may be an asset class to consider for investors with a time horizon that allows them to put a portion of their account in less liquid investments and who desire a chance at higher returns.

Finsum: Read how private credit offers investors the opportunity for greater diversification and higher returns than more traditional forms of debt investments.

2024 has seen the stock market make 17 closing, all-time highs. Despite this strength, many are noting some reasons to be cautious about equities due to some concerning developments under the surface.

In essence, the strong performance of the indexes and mega-cap technology stocks is masking hidden weakness. This is reflected in the Dow Jones Transportation Average failing to confirm the new highs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is a ‘non-conformation’ according to Dow Theory. Dow Theory warns that a new high by the Industrials but not by transportation stocks is prone to failure. Similarly, riskier parts of the market like high-yield bonds and high-beta stocks are also underperforming Treasuries and low volatility stocks, respectively. 

The leader of this bull market has been technology due to excitement around AI and strong earnings growth from leading tech companies. However, there are signs of exhaustion as the relative ratio of the S&P 500 tech sector has failed to confirm the breakout in the S&P 500. According to David Rosenberg, the founder and President of Rosenberg Research, “These were the most important stocks for the market, and no longer look to be in control.” He believes that the longer these measures fail to confirm the new highs in the S&P 500, the larger the risk of a reversal. 

Finsum: 2024 has been a strong year for the stock market with the S&P 500 making new highs. Yet, there are some signs that the rally may be nearing exhaustion. 

Category: Eq: Total Market 

Keywords: #S&P 500; #bull market; #tech; #equities; #risk; 

Diamond Consultants recently completed the 2023 version of its Advisor Transition Report to identify the most important trends in financial advisor recruiting. Overall, recruiting was up 7.5% compared to 2022 which was unexpected given several headwinds. Many advisors who switched reported being more focused on the long-term to find the best place to maximize the value of their practice on a 5 to 20 year horizon.

Another interesting finding is that each channel seems to have a big winner. LPL enjoyed the most success from independent firms, while Morgan Stanley was the winner from traditional wirehouses. Boutique and regional firms like Rockefeller, RBC, or Raymond James also notched some major wins as they offer many of the resources of the large wirehouses without the bureaucracy. 

One catalyst for the increase in recruiting activity has been the expected involvement of private equity bidders. Yet, this hasn’t materialized in terms of PE-backed RIAs poaching talent from legacy players. One factor is that PE offers come with some caveats that make it less appealing to advisors. 

Finally, the lure of the independent channel seems to be fading despite the number of options increasing. This is likely due to traditional firms offering more generous compensation packages while the initial cohort of recruitees who wanted an independent channel have already moved firms. 

Finsum: Diamond Consultants put together its 2023 report on advisor transitions. Major takeaways are that recruiting remained strong despite some major headwinds and that PE buyers haven’t been successful in luring advisors. 

Lower energy prices have provided some relief for consumers over the last few months. However, this could be changing with demand set to increase as we enter the start of driving season which is due to be exacerbated by refinery outages in many parts of the country.

Over the last month, gasoline prices are about 5% higher but still slightly down relative to last year at this point. Higher energy prices negatively impact consumer confidence and discretionary spending but also feed into inflationary pressures. In last month’s CPI report, higher energy prices was a major factor in the hotter than expected readings. Additionally, they have political implications given elections in November.

According to analysts, the situation is likely to get worse before its gets better. Gasoline inventories are lower than normal, following a 5.7 million barrels decline last week, and are now 3% below their average levels for this time of the year. Inventories could continue to be drained as refineries have been running below 87% capacity for the last 8 weeks. Adding to these issues is recent drone strikes on Russian refineries by Ukraine.

Finsum: Gasoline prices have been rising due to refinery issues. The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better as we enter summer driving season, and inventories have been drawn down more than expected.