(Beijing)

Just when you thought the market’s worries over coronavirus might be in the rear view mirror, more bad news has just struck. The largest single day rise in cases just occurred, with China reporting an additional 15,000 cases in a single day. That rise was more than 10x the previous day’s increase. The country reacted by firing top health officials in the Hubei province, which is the epicenter of the outbreak.

FINSUM: When you combine this information with the growing chatter than China may be drastically under-reporting cases, it makes sense markets are worried. 60m people in China are currently under quarantine. Economic damage is inevitable.

(Washington)

Bernie Sanders’ 2020 bid for the presidency is starting to take on some very familiar patterns. In particular, his campaign is starting to look a lot like his rival Donald Trump’s campaign from 2016. Consider that Bernie is largely a party outsider who has widely been shunned by the Democratic mainstream. On paper his rivals seem more electable, but as they squabble with each other he has built grass roots momentum and taken some of the biggest early election events. Even as he rises, those in his own party worry about his actually winning the bid.

FINSUM: It is eerily familiar. Will it be a similar outcome?

(Washington)

Industry lawyers are checking every day, but nothing is happening. Everyone keeps looking at the DOL’s information portal to see if the agency has posted a new version of its Fiduciary Rule. Many thought the rule would be published by the end of the year, but so far nothing. The reason this is important is that the agency is running out of time to get the rule finalized and in place before the election. Rules that get approved immediately before elections are much more likely, and easier, for successors to undue. Therefore, if the rule does not get approved soon (which is near impossible because of the long approval process the White House has once the DOL proposes it), the rule is at risk of a victorious presidential candidate undoing it.

FINSUM: It seems likely this rule won’t get done until right before the election. If Bernie, or really any Democrat, wins it will likely be undone and the path will be paved for a much tougher rule.

(Washington)

Trump won his impeachment trial and his approval rating is higher than before it. But as we wind towards the election in November, an Achilles heel might be appearing for Trump. That weakness is that many of the states who supported him—indeed those that actually sealed his victory—are actually doing worse economically than they were when they elected him. In other words, the spoils of the current economy have not flowed into much of Trump country. This is especially true across the rust belt states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan. All of those states can turn Democratic in any presidential year (some are reliably Democratic)—swing states.

FINSUM: This could be Trump’s weakness in the election—that the blue collar boom he references might not have reached enough of the critical part of his base.

(Washington)

There have been many stories about how coronavirus could hurt the economy. We have covered the extent to which fears of the virus have hurt various sectors as well as general Chinese factory production. Today we have some concrete stats on how the virus is hurting trade. So far, there have been about 350,000 less shipping containers leaving China than there would have been without the virus. Dockworkers at major ports are sitting idle as nothing arrives. Fears of job losses are mounting because workers have nothing to do. The 350,000 figure includes China to Americas shipments as well as China to Europe shipments.

FINSUM: That is a phenomenal amount of production if you think about it, and that is only a portion of the export market. We think there is a good chance of a Chinese recession that may trickle into the global economy.