
FINSUM
REITs are an All-Time Buy Right Now!
Financial markets are extremely volatile as of late and that's putting it lightly, but REITs might be perfectly insulated at this moment and a great option. One of the largest sources of volatility is Russia and Ukraine but real estate is a local business and a solid option for those looking to alternatives. Another source of market risk is inflation however, real estate generally benefits from inflation. House prices outpace it and fixed-rate financing means debtors pay back less over time. Real estate also has leased on a long-term basis and insulted to most short-term shocks, and is a safe haven from typical equity volatility. Finally, if more turmoil suppresses interest rates then this will increase demand for real estate moving forward.
Finsum: We see the huge outperformance potential for real estate because of how uncorrelated the rate of return is with the rest of the markets right now.
Goldman Predicts Oil to Hit $115 a Barrel
Goldman Sachs swiftly raised its one-month projection for Brent to $115 a barrel, a $20 price increase from their previous projection. Not only that they say there are still lots of upside risks if there is further disruption or escalation. The only thing that could hold higher oil prices off would be a complete deterioration of demand by the US and Western Europe. More sanctions are upcoming from the west as Russian banks will be banned from SWIFT payment systems. Commodities are also facing higher price pressures with both threats to payment methods for Russian goods and restrictions to Russian commodities to the wider West. On top of all of this shale supply will fail to compensate for the current demand and OPEC+ will have to step in if there is to be any relief in oil prices.
Finsum: This is a good time to by energy bonds as payment streams will surely be in supply with higher gas prices.
Why Stocks are Rising in the Face of Conflict
Investors, advisors included, seem to be wondering why the stock market has done quite well since Thursday morning when Russia invaded Ukraine. Many expected stocks to tumble—and they initially did—but the opposite has happened, with the S&P 500 up around 5% since the close of business on the 23rd. The reason why has everything to do with the Fed and interest rates. The market now thinks the Fed is in a bind and won’t be able to hike rates as fast as they would have been able to before the conflict. This would mean a slower stop of the easy money surge that has gone on for years. Markets are now only forecasting a 12.5% chance of a 50 bp hike in March.
FINSUM: Stocks have jumped as a simple reaction to the fact that the path of rate hikes looks less steep right now than it did a week ago, which is also why the tech-heavy Nasdaq has jumped the most.
Fidelity Launches Market’s First Retail-focused Direct Indexing Product
Fidelity has just taken a big step in the direct indexing game. Direct indexing has been very hot across the asset management space over the last 12-18 months and has mostly been marketed so far as a high-minimum service for advisors to customize portfolios to client desires. Now, with a product called FidFolios, Fidelity is poised to launch a service to let mom and pop investors customize their portfolios with a minimum of just $5,000.
FINSUM: This was bound to happen. Most advisors may see this as a threat to their value proposition, but we more see it as a validation of the utility of direct indexing for clients. Advisors should take this as a sign of confidence that they should offer direct indexing to clients!
A New Approach in Advisor Recruiting
Financial firms have tried desperately to increase recruiting efforts in the last year or two. While companies like Wells Fargo concentrated on incentive-based tools around retention and recruiting Ameriprise Financial has taken a technology approach. In partnership with Seismic, they have ramped up the suite of technological offerings in order to track, grow, and run their business. The biggest tools offered are LiveDocs, LiveSend, and Interactive Content which all augment their services in order to allow them to compete with larger companies They see their automation efforts as a superior offering to purely financial incentives and it resulted in over 2% growth in the last year.
Finsum: A new approach to advisor recruiting by Ameriprise could definitely give their advisors an edge over competitors and lead to more long-term growth in recruits.