Active management seems to be making a comeback, and adding to that rising rates have many investors eyeing fixed income. For overall active funds in 2020 and 2021, it was a nearly a 50/50 shot that they would outperform similar passive counterparts; in other words virtually no advantage. However, research shows that passive equity has an advantage but over the past 10-years active fixed income leads the way over passive funds. In the last decade, the average bond manager beat the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index nearly three-fifths of the time. However, fixed incomes risk mitigation isn’t captured here, and active funds have the advantage to adjust the risk factor over passive funds, carrying an additional advantage.

Finsum: The ultra-low interest rate environment has been the difference-maker for fixed income managers who have just capitalized better than passive funds.

Inflation surged to a nearly 40-year record high as the CPI index annual inflation pushed to 7.5%. This number was well above expectations and even core inflations 6% posting came in higher than consensus. In response, the Fed is going to tighten and do so significantly as regional Fed Presidents are expecting a 1% rise in the Fed Funds rate. This is a seriously hawkish turn and given there are only 3 more FOMC meetings with projections that would imply a 50-basis point rate hike possibility. The fed hasn’t hiked rates that quickly since the turn of the century. Investors are saying the Fed will want to hike by 50-basis points to keep its credibility.

Finsum: Hikes that steep could destroy the record recovery the US has had, it could lead to major windfalls in equities markets.

Technology stocks ticked up late this week which was refreshing as they have suffered since November when the Nasdaq crept to an all-time high. Rising bond yields fueled the devaluation in technology stocks because as the yield curve steepened this lowers the relative value of future cash flows which are the foundation of growth stocks. Additionally higher inflation also devalues those future earnings. However, the yield curve stagnating was enough to boost the Nasdaq by 3%. Additionally, most tech companies have surpassed expectations on earnings despite headline numbers from Meta.

Finsum: It might not take too many rate hikes to put inflation back in its place which means tech could be undervalued!

Annuities are one of the safest financial securities that exist, but that doesn't mean they are without some risk. Sure one of the biggest risks to an annuity is dying early, but there are other external risks like liquidity. Annuities are among the most illiquid contracts and often come with heavy penalty fees in withdrawals. Additionally, if an annuity company goes bankrupt they aren’t regulated by FINRA, and state and local insurance agencies only cover between $250,000-500,000 in losses. In the current environment, inflation growth is a substantial risk to annuities because it devalues the future payment stream in a fixed rate annuity, and even if the Fed raises rates to curb inflation this will only make it a less attractive yield in comparison to the market.

Finsum: Overall, annuities look like one of the safest securities and variable rate annuities may mitigate interest rate risk.

Coal is the forgotten younger child in the fossil fuel categories and in the age of ESG that has been exacerbated. Demand in the U.S. and Euro area has fallen drastically. For example, it's about half what it was a year ago in the U.S., However coals price has steadily grown as it averaged $168 per metric ton in January which is higher than $119 from all of 2021. What's driving that price increase is the shift in usage from West to East. Coal power is expected to grow by 4.1%, 11%, and 12% in China, India, and SEA respectively over the next three years. In many ways, it was the only available energy in developing countries and has prompted changes in supply chains in both Russia in Indonesia.

Finsum: Just because the U.S. has forgotten about coal doesn’t mean it won’t be a critical part of energy production in the next decade.