(New York)

Despite all the headlines to the contrary, beware of dividend stocks right now. On the surface, dividend stocks look attractive at present, as falling rates make their yields look more attractive. However, picking the wrong ones can be very costly. For instance, the most commonly held high dividend stocks are from blue chips. The problem there is their growth is usually weak and they generally have weaker valuations than the market.

FINSUM: The wrong dividend stocks could go very badly in the current environment, so it will be wise to have a very particular strategy.

(Seattle)

Fedex and Amazon are in the middle of an ugly spot. Anyone paying attention over the last few years will be aware of the “frenemy” relationship between Amazon and logistics providers, as the company offers a lot of business but hammers margins and is stealing away business with its own shipping network. Well, Fedex finally said enough is enough and decided against renewing its ground shipping contract with Amazon. Therein lies opportunity, however, as it should offer UPS a lot more business.

FINSUM: This is a bold move by Fedex. We expect it will hit revenue slightly, but probably not wound profits too badly. It could give UPS and USPS a boost.

(New York)

One of the world’s most respected financial columnists—John Authers—has just put out an article arguing that we may be at the bond market’s Dotcom moment. Authers cites the gigantic hoard of negative yielding debt, as well as many charts of soaring 100-year bond prices (check out Austria’s and Mexico’s), to show that the bond melt up may be set to reverse. He argues that at some point soon (it could have already started with the reversal in ten-years yesterday) that investors will revolt against super-low yields, sending prices lower and yields higher. Authers thinks the spark may be unexpectedly higher inflation, which would undermine the whole premise of recent gains. Tariffs are inflationary by definition, so it is not far-fetched to think this could occur.

FINSUM: We think it would take a significant catalyst to cause a big bond pullback (like a much higher than expected inflation report, a suddenly hawkish Fed etc). That is not out of the question, but it does not seem likely.

(Washington)

It has been a bad week for President Trump and his reelection chances appear to have taken a hit, argues Bloomberg. The reason is that the events of the last week have hurt him in three key areas: suburban voters, rural voters, and industrial states. The massacres of the last week, and Trump’s reluctance to push tougher gun laws, will likely harm him in critical suburban areas, where Democrats have been taking votes. Additionally, on the trade war front, both rural voters and industrial states are likely to be upset at recent developments, which could wound the President further.

FINSUM: We think polls still aren’t doing justice to Trump’s chances, but we have to agree that the last week has not done him any favors.

(New York)

There are a lot of retirees, or near retirees, who have not had to navigate real market volatility for around a decade. And as any retiree knows, high volatility in or at retirement is a very scary prospect. However, there are ways to navigate it. Some tips including keeping a cash buffer, going bargain hunting in the market to find undervalued stocks, and re-evaluating stock exposure. Rotating into sectors that do well in downturns, like consumer staples, healthcare etc, can also be smart.

FINSUM: This is good advice. That said, the US may not be headed into a really bad economic and market scenario, so it may not be wise to get too defensive.