(New York)

Dividends hold an interesting place in the current market environment. On the one hand, their yields are looking more attractive after the big fall in bond yields. However, some think the bond rally is very fragile and that it will either fall in a big way or at least stall, in which case the outlook for dividend stocks is bleak. So how to handle the environment? One tip is to buy dividend stocks with the fastest dividend growth, not the highest yield, as they have been fairing the best and will likely be the most resistant to rate fluctuations. One research analyst in the space summarized the situation this way, saying “Companies exhibiting stronger earnings growth to support regular dividend hikes have been in greater demand than those more value-oriented ones offering higher income streams”.

FINSUM: Those with the best trending yields will likely be more defensible than those with higher but more stagnant yields.

(New York)

In what we see as an encouraging sign with some good logic behind it, Credit Suisse has announced that it is going overweight equities despite the cautiousness of all the other big banks. Specifically, Credit Suisse’s wealth management division is going overweight stocks as it sees increased prospects of a US-China trade deal, diminishing political risk in the UK and Europe, and additional stimulus efforts by global central banks. Taken as a combined force, these are quite bullish considerations, says the bank. Credit Suisse had previously been neutral on equities, but the announcement came from the banks’ global Chief Investment Officer.

FINSUM: We are starting to agree with Credit Suisse on the bullishness. The whole market and economy seem to be re-entering the post-Crisis goldilocks phase where the economy was just weak enough for central banks to stimulate (boosting asset prices, but not weak enough to cause any real problems.

(Washington)

If higher inflation could be a headwind to rate cuts by the Fed, then there is new data today that could prove a tailwind. New figures show that retail spending was significantly weaker in August than in past months. The data showed that core retail spending stagnated after several months of strong expansion. The data is crucial because consumer spending, and American consumer health generally, has been a bedrock of the economy.

FINSUM: The American consumer has been keeping the economy afloat despite a lot of negative signs around the margins. This could either be a blip or the start of a worrying trend.

(Washington)

Everything you think about the direction of rates could be wrong. That is the general fear after this week’s inflation report. US core consumer prices hit a one-year high in August at 2.4% year-on-year growth, ahead of the Fed’s target. Importantly, it was also a bit higher than expectations. The Fed’s new cutting agenda is partly predicated on the fact that inflation has been so subdued, so any change to that assumption could prove disruptive to a cutting cycle.

FINSUM: We don’t think one month’s report will change the Fed’s path, but it is certainly something to keep an eye on. It is going to make September’s inflation report a lot more important.

(New York)

Over the last few weeks, value stocks have been seeing a comeback. The Russell 1000 Value is up 4.15% this month versus just 1% for the corresponding growth index. This has proved a big boost to dividend paying stocks as they tend to be the most undervalued. That means investors are not only seeing good payout, but also nice capital appreciation. According to Evercore ISI, “The rebound in Value represents a buying opportunity [for income investors] following the rout in August”. Interestingly, the stocks with the lowest dividends have been outperforming higher payers.

FINSUM: If you think rates are headed lower than it is definitely a good time to buy dividend payers, as they will offer nice relative yields and good capital appreciation.

(New York)

So let’s say you are in the bullish camp and think the US-China trade spat will be resolved soon. What is the best way to profit from that development? All stocks will likely rise, and bond yields will probably rise too. But where will the best gains be? How about small caps. The argument here may seem counterintuitive, but shows an evolution in thinking on the part of investors. At the start of the trade war, many thought small caps would do well as they are less exposed to international trade. However, thinking has changed and investors are now much more focused on which sectors are most exposed. This has led small caps to have a rough year compared to large caps, mostly because there are so many financial stocks in the small cap sector. That said, a resolution of the trade war would suspend downward pressure on rates and allow the sectors which have beaten up to flourish, offering disproportionate gains for small caps.

FINSUM: This is a fairly sophisticated argument based on the proportion of beaten up stocks that are in the small cap asset class. However, it does make a lot of sense.

(Beijing)

The US and China might be starting to realize that they really need each other. Each side is feeling the pain, and that is making a deal feel closer. China has seen a 47% rise in pork prices in the last year—a key form of disturbance to its population, and seems to want to resume importing US pork. Trump has just delayed a new round of tariffs as a measure of good faith before Washington and Beijing return to the negotiating table.

FINSUM: It is quite hard to ascertain the degree to which the US and China actually want to close a trade deal. China has grown so large and self-sufficient that it is big enough to get by on its own, which seems to lower its incentive to compromise. The US is in the same position.

(New York)

One of the biggest stocks in the country is sitting relatively unloved and appears ready for an investment. That stock? Bank of America, only the biggest deposit holder in the US. The single most important thing to recognize about the bank is that is a well-run powerhouse commanded by the architect who rebuilt it after the Crisis—Brian Moynihan. The bank has a 2.46% dividend, which is looking sweeter every day. JP Morgan just went bullish on the stock, and if Moynihan sticks with the trend and boosts the dividend and adds buybacks, the future looks very bright.

FINSUM: There are some headwinds given the likelihood of falling rates, but that situation also tends to juice all stock prices, which provides some good downside cover.

(New York)

If you asked almost anyone in the industry, the answer would be the same: it is Millennials with whom ESG investing is very popular, “we just can’t get older generations to care”. However, that is not exactly true. While Millennials get most of the credit for caring about socially-conscious investments, it is actually the generation above them, Gen X, which is doing the most ESG investing. A big part of this fact is down to the reality that Gen X is still richer than the younger Millennials. Millennials still win in terms of the overall percentage who buy ESG investments, but Gen X is seeing assets in ESG funds surge quickly. Gen X consists of anyone aged 39-54 years old.

FINSUM: This is a pretty interesting statistic and one that could be useful to some advisors who might be nervous to propose ESG options to those 50+. That said, the desire for ESG investing often comes from the client.

(Washington)

It honestly seems like it would have happened sooner given all the uproar over how “lenient” the new SEC best interest rule supposedly is. Nonetheless, now it has: the SEC has just had a suit filed against it by no less than seven states and the District of Columbia as part of an effort to block the rule. It is the first lawsuit filed against the new regulation and came from a group that included, California, Delaware, New Mexico, Oregon, Connecticut, Maine, and New York. The plaintiffs argue that the rule "undermines critical consumer protections for retail investors". One top lawyer in the space said “The day the release came out [about Reg BI], we figured the SEC would get sued, and here we are”.

FINSUM: Not much of a surprise here really, except maybe that the suit is coming from a pretty formidable group (and not just some random trade body). Get ready for a long period of legal limbo.