(Washington)

The Fed made some highly anticipated policy adjustments at the end of last week. This was not about short-term rate moves either, but rather about its long-term role in the recovery and how it plans to manage the economy. The biggest change seems rather small in wording. The Fed basically corrected its mandate to say that it would not automatically tighten policy just because employment had reached or exceeded what it consider to be “full employment”. In effect, this means that the Fed is ready, willing, able to let the economy run very hot for many years. Analysts think the Fed will likely not hike again until at least 2024.

FINSUM: So the Fed is going to be very accommodative for the next several years. It is starting to feel like equity valuations are going to have no choice but to rise as the Fed has taken “there is no alternative” to a never-before seen level for equities.

(San Francisco)

The CME Group has published a piece about the outlook for FAAMG stocks in the context of the underlying economy. The CME notes that the FAAMG stocks now account for 22% of the total S&P 500, so their influence is skewing investors’ view of the underlying economy. The reality is that the S&P 500 minus those five stocks is a much more accurate—and much bleaker—representation of the economy. CME says that as the reality of a slow recovery starts to play out in the market’s consciousness, there is bound to be a correction in FAAMG stocks.

FINSUM: The law of gravity would seem to dictate that a fall in FAAMG is inevitable, but what is the catalyst for such a move? Their earnings are good as is growth momentum.

(San Francisco)

The wealth management market is already in shock from Democrats’ tax proposal—think top tax rates of over 65% for high tax states. Remember that a large majority of states charge taxes on residents, including big ones like New York and California, where large numbers of America’s wealthy reside. Now, California, the largest and one of the most influential states in the union, has just put out a proposal for taxing wealth, not income. The plan comes from the state’s legislator. Here are the basics of the plan: “The state would apply a 0.4% rate to all net worth above $30 million for single or joint filers. The tax would apply on wealth above $15 million per spouse for married taxpayers who file separately. Net worth would include all assets and liabilities held globally by a taxpayer”, according to Barron’s.

FINSUM: Two eye-opening things here. Firstly, Democrats have a veto-proof supermajority in the state legislature, so passing this will be much easier than elsewhere. Secondly, how much will this influence other states? It was easy to see how left-leaning states influenced others as it regarded state-level fiduciary rules.

(New York)

The wealth management industry has a long-standing issue that has recently been re-highlighted by some new research studies. That issue is that financial advisors—who are overwhelmingly male—tend to have unconscious biases which lead to miscommunication, poor judgments, and bad experiences for female clients. According to Merrill Lynch, one of the big changes in household investing is the increasing involvement of women. For instance, women under 45 are twice as likely as average to be the financial decision maker in their home, and 4.5x more likely than women over 55 to consider themselves knowledgeable about investing. In meetings with heterosexual couples, advisors are still focusing most of their attention on men, which is frustrating to women. Male advisors also often mistakenly assume the couple’s finances are integrated and they are investing from the same account.

FINSUM: It is no surprise that the issues exist in wealth management, as they seem to be present in all industries. Our sector seems pre-disposed to the issue given the overwhelming majority of older male advisors.

(Berlin)

US investors are growing increasingly interested in European equities. The reasons are many. Europe has undertaken huge levels of stimulus and its economy seems to be recovering from the pandemic more quickly than the US’. Further, the Stoxx Europe 600 is still down 10% on the year versus a 6% rise in the US, which means continental stocks may have more room for gains. Another interesting aspect to note is that the continent’s mix of equities has changed markedly over the years and is no longer dominated by banks. This means higher trending earnings and less volatility.

FINSUM: So you have an economy that might get out of recession faster than the US and returns that are 16 points behind, all with very accommodating monetary and fiscal policies. Investing in Europe makes sense!

(Washington)

Advisors need to start thinking about what the post-election tax landscape might look like for clients, especially high earners. The proposed Biden/Democratic tax package is even more stringent than many think, as when you diver deeper it becomes clear that the increases are quite extensive. One core element that is less understood is Biden’s Social Security Payroll tax of 12.4%, which applies to all income with no cap (all income between $137,000 and $400,000 would be taxed at the same level). Combining that with a raised federal tax rate of 39.6%, and state taxes means that some residents of high tax states could see punitive-levels. For example, in California, which has a 13.3% top tax rate, the total tax burden for high earners would be over 65%! Even in states without state taxes, income taxes could be 52%. Furthermore, Biden intends to eliminate capital gains tax rates for those who earn more than $1m, effectively doubling the capital gains tax rate.

FINSUM: There is good news and bad news here. The bad news is obvious. The good news is that because of the state of the economy and the need for fiscal stimulus, Democrats are unlikely to pass these measure until we re-reach full employment, which could be years.

(New York)

The wild market over the last four months has caused a lot of elation and anxiety among investors. It has also caused a rethink of what kind of recovery we may be experiencing. Almost everyone thought we would have a V- or U-shaped recovery, but the way things are shaking out, it looks like we may have a “k-shaped” recovery. What this means is that almost all companies took a big dive at the start of the pandemic. However, after that point the fortunes of certain sectors have diverged markedly, forming a “k” shape to the market recovery. IT, consumer discretionary, and communication services have been the big winners, while energy, financials, utilities, and real estate have suffered.

FINSUM: So the interesting question here is the degree to which the market recovery might end up mirroring the economy’s recovery. So far the patterns make sense.

(New York)

You know the saying “a rising tide lifts all boats”? It couldn’t be further from the truth as it concerns the current stock market. The S&P 500 is just about flat, yet if you take a close look, 337 of its component stocks are down. The index is only being held up by a 1% gain from Apple and minor gains from the other 4 stocks that comprise 20% of its entire value. The lack of breadth has been a consistent feature of the recovery over the last several months.

FINSUM: Investors are not expressing any degree of bullishness about the economy, which would be reflected in breadth. Frankly, all the recent gains seem to be simple momentum bets on a small handful of stocks, making the whole recovery feel hollow.

(New York)

For the last few weeks the market has had somewhat of a respite from the constant stream of vaccine-related market yo-yoing. However, it looks like it is going to start again as several COVID vaccines are reaching a critical stage of testing. Multiple vaccines, one from Pfizer, are entering phase 3 of their trials and some anecdotal evidence says Pfizer’s version is getting better. Johnson & Johnson has a vaccine in a similar position. Markets have shown significant volatility in the past when news about vaccine trials has been released.

FINSUM: The economic implications of a successful COVID vaccine are monumental, so expect significant volatility on material vaccine news, especially as these vaccine trials enter later stages.

(San Francisco)

Even the most die-hard Apple investor must be feeling a little woozy right now. The company’s market cap just surpassed $2 tn. And guess what—half of that came in the last five months. Yes, the company doubled in value since the start of the pandemic and is now worth $2 tn! A couple months ago many were saying Apple was a bargain, now it seems to have a very significant premium. So the big question for investors—is it time to cash out because things feel very toppy, or do you stick with it? The company’s earnings have been phenomenal. So good in fact that Goldman made a blunt comment about flubbing its forecasts, saying “It turns out that we and consensus weren't even in the ballpark in terms of what was possible.”

FINSUM: $2 tn is a scary number, but it feels like it would be wise to stick with Apple right now. Momentum is good and there does not seem to be a big headwind that would wound the stock.