(Washington)

One of the big risks to the muni sector that has gone underappreciated by the financial media and investing community is the threat of the soon-to-be revamped SEC making some big changes to the asset class. See the full story here on our parnter Magnifi's site.

(Washington)

The SEC just made its first big move to tighten regulations ahead of Biden’s inauguration. While the SEC did clarify digital marketing rules a couple of weeks ago, that shift was largely welcomed as the previous guidelines were vague and very outdated. The big change this week is that the SEC is beefing up its Reg BI compliance program. Specifically, it is scaling up its testing program to make sure firms are complying with Reg BI. According to a note from the SEC, “Division staff has assessed the results of its initial Regulation Best Interest examinations and now that approximately six months have passed since the Regulation Best Interest compliance date, the Division intends to begin its next phase by conducting more focused examinations … beginning in January 2021”.

FINSUM: Enforcement of Reg BI has been pretty lax to date, but this feels like a new phase is beginning. Most insiders in the business think the Biden administration’s approach will be to intensify Reg BI enforcement rather than write a new rule, so this step makes logical sense within that.

(New York)

Fixed index annuities are a relative newcomer to the annuities industry. For those unfamiliar, fixed index annuities offer some upside from markets, while also putting in a floor on losses. Their sales have surged lately. While volatility from COVID was a strong tailwind for fixed index annuity sales, the other big factor has to do with interest rates. Diversifying holdings into fixed income yields next to nothing, and does not currently offer the de-risking that investors have long sought it for. Couple that reality with the huge mass of Baby Boomers entering retirement and it is clear why fixed index annuities are so sensible right now.

FINSUM: Fixed income just isn’t offering the traditional risk hedge versus equities that it long has. That makes fixed index annuities—with their loss floors and upside participation—the natural replacement.

(New York)

2020 was a rollercoaster of a year and not just in financial markets. It was quite a wild year in recruiting as well. When the pandemic hit, advisor movement dropped off to a trickle, but in the summer it started to come back and was roaring in the second half of the year. 2021 seems like it will be much the same. Both large IBDs and RIAs are looking to increase recruiting efforts, and offer packages for jumping ship have been getting larger. Commonwealth, for instance is planning a major recruiting push this year, which builds on other big efforts from Fidelity and LPL.

FINSUM: This definitely feels like an advisor’s market for moves. Firms are hungry to recruit and advisors seem to have the upper hand in negotiations.

(New York)

One of the big risks to the muni sector that has gone underappreciated by the financial media and investing community is the threat of the soon-to-be revamped SEC making some big changes to the asset class. The reason for concern is that Elad Roisman has just been appointed interim chief of the SEC. Roisman has long had a focus on transparency in fixed income markets, which he and others at the SEC feel is too opaque. This has raised the risk of new regulation in the space. That said, his short term before likely being replaced by Biden will limit his time frame to change any policy.

FINSUM: Roisman is a Republican and was previously chief counsel at NYSE Euronext, which gives him a very significant command of market structure. This would certainly equip him with the know-how to overhaul fixed income markets, but unless the Biden administration wants that to be a focus, it doesn’t seem he will have enough time. Bullet dodged or opportunity missed?

(New York)

Small caps have had a great run since the market’s bottom in March. The IWM ETF, which is the market’s effective benchmark for small cap performance has had an astonishing year. Since October alone IWM has returned 35%. If you look since the beginning of March, the return is over 100%. Many would be okay with earning that in almost a decade! With that in mind, some contend that it is time to take profits as the asset class is priced for perfection.

FINSUM: This is an interesting and classic debate. If performance is so stellar, should you take the victory and get out, or stick with your winner? If momentum investing has taught us anything in the last half decade, it is to stick with winners. Looking more fundamentally, small caps have historically outperformed when the economy is growing, so there should be some tailwind.

(New York)

With the calendar flipping to 2021, the big question on everyone’s mind is what 2021 will hold. 2020 was an exceptionally wild, and ultimately very profitable, year for investors. And within the final few months of 2020 was a developing buy signal that rarely occurs. That signal was the constant revision of earnings estimates in an upward direction. Remember that analysts’ earnings estimates are very frequently revised just before earnings are released, and the large majority of the time those revisions are towards the downside. However, in nearly every week of Q4, revisions moved estimates higher. According to Jefferies, “We’d argue that this is one of the most important tailwinds for equities, as earnings revisions are rarely positive”.

FINSUM: Revising earnings upwards breaks almost all rules of the equity research game, so when it happens it is quite notable. This suggests some strongly positive momentum for the economy.

(New York)

Munis had a wild and rough year in 2020. Everyone who invests in the sector is wondering what’s next. While the lack of direct state and municipal aid in the recent congressional package is a downer for muni investors, there is a lot to be happy about. Election certainty, good news on the vaccine front, and the inauguration of Biden are all raising the sector’s prospects. Biden is seen as more likely to help local state and municipalities with aid, which has raised prospects for the sector. Downgrades are a risk, but widespread defaults seem unlikely.

FINSUM: On the whole, things seem like they are set up for a pretty positive year. As to the possibility of downgrades, it is worth noting that downgrades usually trail economic performance, so they would take a while to come through.

(Washington)

As of last Wednesday, Trump-appointed SEC chief Jay Clayton has departed, with an interim head now in place. That means the Trump era is effectively over at the agency. It is now Biden’s turn to take the reins, and according to industry experts, that likely means two big changes. The first is the type of SEC chief he will choose, and the second is the nature of Reg BI. On the chairperson front, it is rumored that Biden with choose Preet Bharara, a former prosecutor, which would be more in line with Obama era chief Mary Jo White. This would be a departure from Clayton, who is also a lawyer, but worked on behalf of corporate clients. Secondly, the nature of Reg BI would likely change in substantial ways. “Best interest” seems very likely to be defined under Biden; and additionally, enforcement efforts will likely be stepped up considerably versus the status quo.

FINSUM: Our instinct is the SEC is going to be a totally different animal under Biden, as a definition of “best interest” and rigorous enforcement efforts would significantly change the general wealth management regulatory environment. Plus, a prosecutor as head of the SEC sort of says everything you need to know what about what the enforcement regime might look like.

(New York)

Munis have long been very popular with HNW clients because of their tax exempt income. However, a new—and slightly confusing—part of the industry is increasingly becoming popular. That new niche is taxable muni bonds. According to Barron’s “Taxable municipal bonds are the fastest-growing sector in U.S. fixed income. This year, issuance has totaled more than $170 billion, double the $85 billion sold in all of 2019. The total market has grown to $700 billion—sizable but still below the $3.7 trillion tax-exempt muni market”. Many think the new vaccines will give a boost to munis, which have suffered under COVID.

FINSUM: If you are interested in this market, check out Invesco’s Taxable Municipal Bond ETF (BAB).