(Washington)

This week was a big one for infrastructure stocks. After years of discussion, Biden took action and put forth an eye-opening $3 tn package (in two parts) for American infrastructure. The package would focus on infrastructure, education, work force development, and fighting climate change. The aim is to make the economy more productive. However, for the stock market, one of the immediate benefits is how such government dollars would affect infrastructure stocks. Most specifically, look at the following sectors: machines, construction, and materials stocks.

FINSUM: $3 tn is a great deal of money, and a lot of it will likely flow into the private sector to fulfil these mandates. Time to dig in and pick winners. We will continue coverage on this in the coming week.

(New York)

The Pandemic has shifted the paradigm for many investors as they look to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) to make up a larger share of their portfolio. ESG will shape the future of investing but there is a new way to invest in green companies with a new twist. Sustainably linked bonds (SLB) allow firms to receive money for green energy initiatives but rather they will pay a penalty if they don’t meet expectations. Marilyn Ceci head of ESG development at JP Morgan expects SLB to hit $120-150 billion despite issuance since inception being only around $20 billion. SLB isn’t a threat to ESG as the industry is expected to grow from $270 billion last year to over $400 billion this year, but rather a compliment to the growing industry. ESG's ability to withstand the full business cycle is a testament to its future. FINSUM: SLB’s offer many companies a way to a greener future without an explicit plan, and are a reflection of how large ESG is growing. Other companies need a way to keep up with this burgeoning bond market.

(New York)

Model portfolios provided by third parties have become increasingly popular for advisors, but separating the best from the rest is no easy feat. To help out advisors, Morningstar now has rankings and guides (see them here). Here are five of the top picks from Morningstar: BlackRock Target Allocation ETF, Vanguard CORE, American Funds Growth & Income, American Funds Tax Aware Growth & Income, BlackRock Multi-Asset Income. Other interesting options include the State Street Strategic Asset Allocation and T.Rowe Price Active.

FINSUM: The world of model portfolios has been proliferating enough that scoring and guidance is very useful (just think how hard ETF selection would be without screeners!).

(New York)

Infrastructure investment is a fascinating area that can have good yields and strong returns. However, advisors should be forgiven if they feel like the hype that has surrounded it over the last five years has never matched reality. Politicians have been talking about a new golden age of US infrastructure investment since the Obama years, yet almost nothing has materialized. That seems like it will change under Biden, and the whole sector looks poised to benefit. According to Goldman Sachs, the big winners look likely to be materials, construction, and machinery stocks.

FINSUM: Frontrunning this infrastructure package could be a good idea. As soon as there is an indication that it may become a reality, there will likely be a work-from-home-like jump in prices.

(New York)

Until every recently (and even now), junk bond yields were historically low. This was not a surprise since Treasuries were also at historic lows. But the whole situation begs an important question—why are junk bonds so popular when their yields are so low? It seems like an abundance of risk with little return. The answer to the question is that “there is no alternative”. Many fund managers have mandates to invest in a minimum holding of bonds, no matter what their yields. Therefore, when that cash needs to find a home in fixed income, it naturally finds its way towards the highest-yielding bonds, even if those might be quite risky. This helps explains the huge decline in yields since March 2020 (from an average of 12% yield to under 4% in February).

FINSUM: “There is no alternative” (TINA), is the same explanation given for the big rise in equities since after the Financial Crisis, and even since the beginning of the pandemic. Frankly, the argument seems to hold water.

(New York)

Annuities have seen major growth in popularity since the pandemic began—a 40% tumble in stock prices when a huge portion of Americans are about to retire will do that. Annuities sales have risen, and advisors—especially those new to selling them—may be asking themselves if the products are good fit for all clients. The answer is a resounding “maybe”. The reality is that almost all portfolios can benefit from a portion being put in a product with guaranteed lifetime income. However, the degree of exposure depends hugely on the client’s wealth, spending habits, self-control (as it relates to withdrawing from investment accounts), and even personality. According to the head of a leading firm in the annuities space, “I think that, in general, an annuity makes sense for most people. The only true way to guarantee lifetime income is through an annuity contract with an insurance company”.

FINSUM: For the wealthy and those with great self-control an annuity is an excellent hedge against big losses. For the rest, it can be a critical component that preserves lifetime income.

(Washington)

Many advisors may not have realized it yet, but the new COVID relief package passed by Congress recently has many benefits for upper middle class Americans and even those in the mass affluent category (which constitute tens of millions of clients for advisors). Other than the $1,400 checks, there are also two lesser known details advisors need to be aware of. If a client qualified for a check last time, but did not get one, they can claim the money they would have been entitled to as a credit against their taxes. It is a bottom line deduction that comes directly out of taxes owed. If no taxes are owed, they should get the credit as a refund check Additionally, the package offers enhanced child tax credits. This is $3,600 per child under 6 years old, and $3,000 per child between 6 and under 18 years old. The latter used to be for those under 17, so this helps those with 17 year-old children. Finally, those who have student loans that will be forgiven will not have to pay taxes on the forgiven amounts, which is a massive benefit for those who qualify.

FINSUM: There is a lot more to this package than many realize. Advisors should take a deeper dive to see what applies to their clients.

(New York)

There might be a great migration in the cards for bonds. While many have spoken of a broad migration into equities that occurred over the last year, a smaller scale change might be about to occur within bonds. Treasuries have been getting hammered, and corporate bonds are appearing increasingly attractive to investors for a number of reasons. Firstly, their durations tend to be much shorter, meaning they have significantly lower interest rate risk—crucial right now. And secondly, with the economy picking up, earnings and business health are looking brighter and brighter.

FINSUM: Aviva Investors thinks corporate bonds have a nice pathway to gain. While rates are working against corporate bonds, the fundamentals are strong. If yields finally stabilize under 2%, it is easy to imagine investors piling into corporate bonds as the recovery strengthens.

(New York)

Commodities have been doing great this year. The big rise in demand coupled with weak supplies because of COVID have led to a surge in prices. However, one bright spot—metals—might have some trouble looming on the horizon. There is increasing speculation that the US may scrap pennies. If that happens, it could put a dent in the copper and zinc markets. This dent would not only come from a lack of new demand, but the fact that pennies would be taken out of circulation and recycled. This would amplify the effect by boosting supply to the system and lowering demand for newly-mined metal.

FINSUM: This might have a strong psychological effect even though the total quantity of zinc from pennies accounts for less than 4% of total annual output.

(New York)

In an eye-opening “expose” type article, for CIO of Blackrock’s ESG division went on the record saying that ESG was largely just hype and had little substance behind it. According to former CIO Tariq Fancy, “In truth, sustainable investing boils down to little more than marketing hype, PR spin and disingenuous promises from the investment community”. The comments ran in USA Today on March 16th.

FINSUM: The reality is a little more complicated. ESG does suffer from a great deal of greenwashing, and firms—at first—did little to genuinely integrate ESG into their decision-making. Over time, they have taken greater account of real ESG factors in investment selection, but at the same time much of what constitutes “ESG” and “green investment” is muddled and unclear. There is a reporting issue that the whole industry suffers from—there is not enough data to separate good from bad companies—and thus much of the investment selection gets generalized according to industries (e.g. tech is good, energy is bad), which is so broad as to be almost useless.