Direct indexing is in its infancy in UK and Euro area, whereas across the pond it has taken off quickly. Driving the growth in the U.S. is the ability for direct and custom indexing to accommodate the US tax system and those benefits just aren’t present in Europe. However, ESG is a well-developed market and direct indexing is turning the heads of many ESG investors for its custom approach. Experts say the institutional knowledge in Europe could make it a haven for direct indexing because larger ETFs take too simple of an approach. Morgan Stanley’s Paramterics sees a natural marriage of these industries because experts can develop more robust indices or individual investors can drop the greenwashers from the indices they are tracking.

Finsum: ESG could vault direct indexing to the investing frontier in the way that tax-loss harvesting has in the U.S.

Annuities have had rapidly growing interest in the post covid era, and this has been especially true for variable annuities. What makes variable annuities attractive is inflation and interest rate risk which will elevate their value, however, for annuities providers and insurers, this is represented as risk. In an action to mitigate those risks Aegon, the parent company to Transamerica, engaged in a buyout program that ended in January. In total 18% of annuity holders capitalized on buybacks to settle their portfolio. Transamerica also expanded its hedging strategies to ensure against interest rate and equity risk for the remaining balance of its variable annuity portfolio.

Finsum: Recent legal changes have drastically affected the insurance and annuity industry which has been key to their growing demand, in addition to the covid-19 pandemic and rising subsequent unemployment.

Active management seems to be making a comeback, and adding to that rising rates have many investors eyeing fixed income. For overall active funds in 2020 and 2021, it was a nearly a 50/50 shot that they would outperform similar passive counterparts; in other words virtually no advantage. However, research shows that passive equity has an advantage but over the past 10-years active fixed income leads the way over passive funds. In the last decade, the average bond manager beat the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index nearly three-fifths of the time. However, fixed incomes risk mitigation isn’t captured here, and active funds have the advantage to adjust the risk factor over passive funds, carrying an additional advantage.

Finsum: The ultra-low interest rate environment has been the difference-maker for fixed income managers who have just capitalized better than passive funds.

Inflation surged to a nearly 40-year record high as the CPI index annual inflation pushed to 7.5%. This number was well above expectations and even core inflations 6% posting came in higher than consensus. In response, the Fed is going to tighten and do so significantly as regional Fed Presidents are expecting a 1% rise in the Fed Funds rate. This is a seriously hawkish turn and given there are only 3 more FOMC meetings with projections that would imply a 50-basis point rate hike possibility. The fed hasn’t hiked rates that quickly since the turn of the century. Investors are saying the Fed will want to hike by 50-basis points to keep its credibility.

Finsum: Hikes that steep could destroy the record recovery the US has had, it could lead to major windfalls in equities markets.

Technology stocks ticked up late this week which was refreshing as they have suffered since November when the Nasdaq crept to an all-time high. Rising bond yields fueled the devaluation in technology stocks because as the yield curve steepened this lowers the relative value of future cash flows which are the foundation of growth stocks. Additionally higher inflation also devalues those future earnings. However, the yield curve stagnating was enough to boost the Nasdaq by 3%. Additionally, most tech companies have surpassed expectations on earnings despite headline numbers from Meta.

Finsum: It might not take too many rate hikes to put inflation back in its place which means tech could be undervalued!

Annuities are one of the safest financial securities that exist, but that doesn't mean they are without some risk. Sure one of the biggest risks to an annuity is dying early, but there are other external risks like liquidity. Annuities are among the most illiquid contracts and often come with heavy penalty fees in withdrawals. Additionally, if an annuity company goes bankrupt they aren’t regulated by FINRA, and state and local insurance agencies only cover between $250,000-500,000 in losses. In the current environment, inflation growth is a substantial risk to annuities because it devalues the future payment stream in a fixed rate annuity, and even if the Fed raises rates to curb inflation this will only make it a less attractive yield in comparison to the market.

Finsum: Overall, annuities look like one of the safest securities and variable rate annuities may mitigate interest rate risk.

Coal is the forgotten younger child in the fossil fuel categories and in the age of ESG that has been exacerbated. Demand in the U.S. and Euro area has fallen drastically. For example, it's about half what it was a year ago in the U.S., However coals price has steadily grown as it averaged $168 per metric ton in January which is higher than $119 from all of 2021. What's driving that price increase is the shift in usage from West to East. Coal power is expected to grow by 4.1%, 11%, and 12% in China, India, and SEA respectively over the next three years. In many ways, it was the only available energy in developing countries and has prompted changes in supply chains in both Russia in Indonesia.

Finsum: Just because the U.S. has forgotten about coal doesn’t mean it won’t be a critical part of energy production in the next decade.

According to a recent ThinkAdvisor article, 2022 is expected to be another record-setting year for launches and fund flows, mostly actively managed ETFs. Interestingly, RIAs are seen introducing their own ETFs, based on their proprietary investment models.

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Finding a successful stock market predictor is like finding a needle in a haystack, but JPMorgan says they have the indicator, and now is the time to buy in the stock market. The buying guide is when the CBOE Volatility Index grows by over half of its one-month moving average. This has a near bulletproof historical record, only falling during recessions in the last 30 years. Markets gained an average of 9% in the equities in the two quarters after the metric was triggered. Overall, JPMorgan is bullish about the near future in equities and believes there is a lot of runway ahead.

Finsum: Metrics like this can be an anomaly or indicative of something structural underneath, still a recession isn’t out of question with Fed taper tantrum possibilities.

Vanguard turned the investing world upside down with the advent of index-based investing. In 2022 there could be a new predominant investment vehicle taking the reigns: custom indexing. However, this fad has failed to create traction globally the way it has in the US. The two keys that are preventing custom indexing from reaching the same level of success globally are technology and taxes. CI relies on the software tools and facilities to manage this algorithmic portfolio construction, and lots of global firms aren’t there yet. Additionally, tax-loss harvesting makes custom indexing wildly popular in the US, but those same advantages don’t exist in the fiscal structure of other countries.

Finsum: Many of the industry giants are buying up custom indexing firms left and right which will get rid of the technological barrier in custom indexing for countries around the globe.