Displaying items by tag: Trump

Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors grew more confident that an immediate escalation in the U.S.-E.U. trade conflict might be avoided. The 30-year yield fell to 4.984% and the 10-year to 4.475%, coinciding with a rise in stock futures. 

This drop in yields suggests renewed investor demand for government bonds, signaling reduced risk sentiment and a preference for safety. The shift followed President Trump’s decision to delay imposing new tariffs on the European Union, pending further negotiations. 

While E.U. officials expressed optimism about a potential deal, recent trade tensions have already rattled markets, leading to weak demand for U.S. Treasurys in last week’s auction. 

Finsum: Compounding concerns is a major Republican policy proposal moving through Congress that lacks full funding, raising additional doubts about America’s fiscal outlook.

Although the Trump administration is rolling back some environmental regulations and cutting incentives for renewable energy development, many sustainability-focused investments remain commercially viable. 

Deregulatory moves and proposed tariff increases may challenge clean energy supply chains and weaken enforcement of environmental protections. However, the economics of renewables like wind and solar continue to improve, with costs often rivaling those of fossil fuels in parts of the U.S. Demand for energy is also rising due to technologies like AI, reinforcing the need for diverse and resilient power sources. 

UBS maintains that a diversified, global approach to ESG investing can continue delivering competitive returns even in a less supportive political environment.

Despite shifting U.S. policy, sectors such as infrastructure, energy efficiency, and materials still present strong opportunities for sustainable investors.

U.S. farmers are facing a sharp drop in soybean and pork exports to China just as planting season ramps up, signaling serious trouble ahead. With China previously accounting for a major share of demand, especially for these two products, the sudden decline in sales — some dropping more than 70% — is hitting a fragile agricultural sector hard. 

The current trade dispute, now broader and more severe than the 2018 tariff standoff, comes with no clear support for producers and is compounded by related conflicts with other trade partners like Canada. This creates a supply chain crunch, not just at the point of export but also in key input materials like fertilizer, making the hit to farmers multifaceted. 

Domestic consumption isn’t likely to absorb the surplus either, especially as U.S. demand for pork remains soft and efforts like increasing biodiesel requirements are not enough to offset lost international sales. 

For many growers, the loss of access to a market of over a billion consumers could be a lasting blow with no easy substitute.

Cryptocurrencies tumbled as concerns over a broader U.S. stock selloff overshadowed recent efforts by President Trump to support the industry. Bitcoin dropped more than 3% in early Asian trading, while Ether sank as much as 6% to its lowest level since October 2023 before recovering some losses. 

The decline followed a sharp selloff in technology stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 plunging 3.8%, its worst session since October 2022. Despite Trump’s executive order to establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, investor sentiment remained fragile as macroeconomic risks took center stage. 

Analysts noted that leveraged crypto-related ETFs were among the hardest hit, with some plunging more than 30% in a single day. While Bitcoin hovered around $79,300, traders were eyeing key support levels at $73,000 and $70,000, where stronger buying interest could emerge.

Finsum: While many think of crypto as hedge against market volatility, we need to remember that those hedges are a little effective on the currency side. 

Morgan Stanley has revised its U.S. economic outlook, predicting weaker growth and higher inflation due to escalating trade policies. The bank now expects GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, lowering its prior estimates of 1.9% and 1.3%, respectively.

Inflation forecasts have also risen, with headline PCE inflation projected at 2.5% by December, up from 2.3%, while core inflation is seen hitting 2.7% instead of 2.5%. Despite fluctuating trade policies with key partners, tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place, with China vowing retaliation.

These adjustments follow President Trump’s temporary suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, reversing an earlier move to impose duties over concerns about drug trafficking and migration.

Finsum: Restrictive trade and immigration policies could weigh on economic growth, reinforcing their view of "slower growth, firmer inflation."